Campeonato Brasileiro 2011 preview: Round 15 (part two)

Continuing on with the preview of this weekend's Brasileirão, let's turn our attention to Sunday's afternoon matches.

Santos x Ceará (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Pacaembu)

Both Santos and Ceará have been struggling of late, so a win for either side would be vital. Ceará are coming into this game off the back of an extremely disappointing defeat at home to Avaí, where they were completely outplayed and beaten 3x0. Santos, the 2011 Copa Libertadores champions, are also in a poor phase, losing their last three matches and gaining heavy criticism from their supporters.

Against Ceará, Santos should not really have many problems and will more than likely win comfortably. They will be without wonderkid Neymar, who is suspended, but they will still be able to field a strong lineup capable of seeing off the Vozão.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS 

Internacional x Cruzeiro (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Beira-Rio)

Internacional and Cruzeiro face off against one another in Porto Alegre in what could certainly turn out to be the game of the round. Both teams have slumped a little over the past month, but they possess strong squads and we should see in exciting yet even match. Inter and Cruzeiro are both poised to go on a good run of form, and a win in this match could be perfect to kick that off.

Inter remain with several selection issues, Guiñazu, Zé Roberto, Bolatti and Gilberto are all injured, Oscar and Juan are away with the Brazilian U-20 squad, and Kleber and Wilson Matias are suspended. Coach Osmar Loss has been using a 4-5-1 formation recently, but with so many injuries in the midfield, it is expected that he will have to change his shape. 

Cruzeiro aren't without their own problems either, Thiago Ribeiro and Roger remain on the sidelines injured, but coach Joel Santana can still count on Montillo and Wallyson going forward. This will be an intriguing match, where we should see some goals and excitement. In my opinion, Cruzeiro will come through as narrow winners, but in truth this game could go either way.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

Atlético-PR x Corinthians (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Arena da Baixada)

Leaders Corinthians continue on their run of favourable fixtures, in the past week they have faced 17th placed Avaí, 20th placed América and now they take on Atlético Paranaense in 19th place. This game could be dangerous though, as o Furacão have hit some decent form of late and look tough to beat at home in Curitiba. 

Corinthians have had their leader credentials well tested over the past few weeks, and some cracks are beginning to appear. Their defence does not look as assured as it was earlier in the season, and some particularly poor performances from young goalkeeper Renan has now made coach Tite axe him in favour of their terribly inexperienced third goalkeeper Danilo Fernandes. With their opponents visibly rattled by recent results, Atlético will be going all out for the upset.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

América-MG x Fluminense (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Arena do Jacaré)

InternaciIn the last of Sunday's afternoon matches América Mineiro host last year's champions Fluminense in Sete Lagoas. América, currently in 20th position in the league standings, have been in some real trouble of late and team morale appears to be at an all-time low. Fan's favourite Givanildo has came in as their new manager to try and steady the ship, but they will find it extremely hard against this Fluminense side.

Fluminense coach Abel Braga looks to have finally settled into the job and Fluminense are on their best run of form of this season so far. This week the club has been rocked with speculation surrounding the possible exit of national team striker Fred, with the 27 year old claiming he has recieved death threats from certain sections of the Fluminense support. They will continue without him this weekend, with Rafael Moura and Rafael Sobis playing up front. 

In Brasil, scandals like this often seem to affect on-field performance, but Fluminense are looking too good at this moment and should win this match comfortably.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

There you have it, Sunday's afternoon games all previewed. The final part of the preview is coming soon, a look at the three matches on Sunday evening, which includes an interesting clássico.

Campeonato Brasileiro 2011 preview: Round 14 (part two)

We are back with the preview for Round 14 of the 2011 Brasileirão, we still have two move games tonight to cover, and then tomorrow's match-ups.

Cruzeiro x Flamengo (Wednesday 3rd - 21h50 Arena do Jacaré)

Cruzeiro host Flamengo in Sete Lagoas in what is certainly this week’s headline match. The home side have had some difficulties of late and after some good performances in the past month or so, they have now suffered two straight defeats against lesser opponents. Sitting in mid-table, they will be desperate to claw their way back up into a Copa Libertadores place. Cruzeiro are still without Thiago Ribeiro and Roger, but will have a strong line-up to call upon.

Flamengo are the league's form team at the moment and they remain as the only unbeaten side in the Brasileirão. Craque Ronaldinho Gaúcho is hitting form and sits at the top of the goalscoring charts, while Thiago Neves is putting in some excellent performances in the midfield. On paper, this one looks like a nailed-on Flamengo win, but Cruzeiro have an uncanny knack of beating Flamengo, in fact they have been victorious in the last six league meetings between the sides. Expect an even game without many goals.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS 

Coritiba x Palmeiras (Wednesday 3rd - 21h50 Couto Pereira)

The last time that Coritiba and Palmeiras met at the Couto Pereira, the home side recorded a historic win, defeating Palmeiras 6x0 in the Copa do Brasil. Times have changed now, Palmeiras are a much stronger side who are secure in defence and Coritiba's momentum seems to have slowed down.

Palmeiras welcome back ídolos Marcos and Kleber to the starting 11, and new signing Henrique makes in the squad, although he will most likely start on the bench. Coritiba are the favourites for this one, despite Palmeiras' high league position. This should be an interesting match, with Coritiba investing their hopes in their attack and Palmeiras doing the same only in defence. Expect a tight scoreline, perhaps even a 0x0 draw with plently of missed chances.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

São Paulo x Bahia (Thursday 4th - 21h00 Morumbi)

Moving on to Thursday's games, we start at the Morumbi as São Paulo take on Bahia. New São Paulo boss Adílson Batista has had a pretty unconvincing start to his reign, especially at home. His only two home games in charge have ended in disappointment, with a defeat to Vasco and a draw against Atlético-GO. On Thursday they will be looking to bounce back against a Bahia side struggling in defence.

Bahia are a side that have been suffering from similar problems, they have managed good results against big sides away from home, but their home form is lamentable. O tricolor baiano should make it very difficult for São Paulo, and if their defence can manage to stop São Paulo's wonderkid Lucas, they might just be able to sneak a result.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

Fluminense x Internacional (Thursday 4th - 21h00 Engenhão)

Internacional travel to Rio de Janeiro to take on a rejuvenated Fluminense side at the Engenhão, and with the return of some key players for the away side, we could be in for a cracking match. Since Abel Braga took over as Fluminense boss, the morale amongst the squad has beed good, but results have been poor. Last weekend though, Flu managed a 4x0 win over Ceará in what was certainly their best performance of the season so far. Forwards Fred, Souza and Marquinho all seem to be in good form, and they will certainly be very hard to beat at the moment.

Their opponents Internacional are trying to pull themselves out of a disappointing phase, littered with injury problems and unconvincing results. However striker Leandro Damião will make his return against Flu and when he is in the side the whole team seem to function better. Zé Roberto is still injured and Oscar and Juan are with the Brazilian under-20 squad, but Inter are starting to get their big men back. This promises to be an excellent game, both sides are needing the points and there should be goals.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

Atlético-GO x Atlético-PR (Thursday 4th - 21h00 Serra Dourada)

The last game of the weekend sees a battle of the atléticos as Atlético Goianiense take on Atlético Paranaense in Goiânia. This match may be forgotten amongst the other more high profile encounters, but it promises to be an intriguing game with both sides making big improvements over the past few weeks. The home side are unbeaten in their last three games, and when you consider those games were against São Paulo, Cruzeiro and then Internacional, that is even more impressive. 

Atlético Paranaense, o Furacão, had a terrible start to this year's campaign, only picking up two points in their first ten matches. However, wins against Botafogo and Santos (a thrilling 3x2) in the past ten days has breathed new life into the players and lifted them up off the bottom of the league. The signing of Uruguayan striker Santiágo 'Morro' García has given their attack some much-needed firepower and who knows how far this resurgence can take them.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

 

Campeonato Brasileiro 2011 preview: Round 6 (part two)

Following on from yesterday’s part one, here is the final part of the Brasileirão round six preview. All six games on Sunday are covered.

The Pacaembu is the only place to start on Sunday as Corinthians take on São Paulo in one of the biggest clássicos in the country. Both teams have had strong starts to their respective seasons, both are unbeaten, with São Paulo maintaining a 100% record and sitting atop the Brasileirão table. Corinthians have played one game less than the rest of the league, after they were due to play Copa Libertadores champions Santos last week (that match has been re-scheduled for August), and after a very tough run of fixtures to open the league they can be very happy with their ten points.

Corinthians will only make one change to their last time out, captain Chicão returns from suspension and takes the place of Wallace at centre-back. They were served a blow earlier this week when they were told they would not be able to play new-signing Alex from Spartak Moscow. The player has not been fully registered in time with the league, and it looks like he will have to wait until next week to finally make his debut, over a month since he signed.

São Paulo boss Paulo Cesar Carpegiani has quite a few changes to make from his side that defeated Ceará last weekend. Rodrigo Souto and Juan are both suspended, while star man Lucas is away with the Brasil squad for the Copa América. O Tricolor should line up in a 4-4-2, Luiz Eduardo deputizing at left-back with Bruno Uvini covering at centre-back. In the midfield, Ilsinho and Carlinhos Paraíba come in to play on the wings, with Casemiro and Wellington marshaling the middle of the park. Dagoberto returns up front alongside Marlos.

Many will be backing São Paulo to continue their rhythm and record their sixth straight league win, but Corinthians’ pedigree for clássicos is undeniable, o Timão have not lost a Paulista clássico at the Pacaembu since 2007. In that time they have played Paulista rivals sixteen times, winning twelve and drawing four.

Expected Formations


Next, back to the Engenhão in Rio de Janeiro as Botafogo host gauchos Grêmio. Both teams could only draw their respective matches last week, and will be hoping to kick on with an important victory.

Botafogo have a few players missing from their preferred starting eleven, Egidio Arévalo and Loco Abreu are still away with the Uruguayan national team, and since last week goalkeeper Jefferson has joined up with the Brasil side. Left-back Bruno Cortês picked up an injury in the Flamengo match last week, and Márcio Azevedo will deputise. Apart from that, their system remains largely the same, and they should line up 4-5-1 as they did last week.

Grêmio will be making a significant change to the side that drew with Vasco last week, moving to a 3-5-2 to try for a different approach after being criticized when playing 4-4-2. Captain Fábio Rochemback is suspended, and goalkeeper Víctor is with the Seleção and they will be replaced by Fernando and Marcelo Grohe. Junior Viçosa and Saimon are dropped, and new signing Marquinhos and Rafael Marques will play in their absence. Lúcio and Gabriel will be moved out to wing-backs, with Rafael Marques, Mário Fernandes and Neuton playing at centre back. Marquinhos will play centre midfield, supporting playmaker Douglas who plays just off the lone centre-forward Lins.

I will be expecting another draw for these sides here, when you have a look at the two formations on paper, both defenses appear to be well positioned against the respective attackers. Game-changing players like Maicosuel, Elkeson and Douglas will be looked towards to provide the all-important spark.

Expected Formations


Bottom side Avaí host reigning champions Fluminense at the Ressacada, and a win for either side would be extremely welcome. Avaí’s problems are clear to see, bottom of the league, only one point out of fifteen, and a dreadful goal difference of -13. Fluminense are having their own troubles however, and new boss Abel Braga will be absolutely desperate to record his first victory after taking over two weeks ago.

With morale low after their 5x0 thrashing at the hands of Palmeiras, Avaí will surely be doing anything they can for some points this week. There will be some changes to the squad for this match, George Lucas and Róbson are dropped, with new loan signing Daniel and the returning Rafael Coelho being introduced. Centre-back Cássio is injured and should be replaced by new signing Welton Felipe, who only joined the club on Wednesday.

In the absence of Fred, who is with the Seleção, Fluminense will alter their formation to a 4-5-1 for Sunday’s game. Marquinho and Diguinho are re-introduced to the first team, with Valencia and Ciro making way for them. Rafael ‘He-Man’ Moura will start as the lone striker in the place of Fred.

Conceding an average of 3.4 goals per game, Avaí’s defence has been truly woeful so far. If Fluminense can capitalise on this they could secure a very important morale-boosting victory. Anything other than a win is unthinkable for the reigning champions.

Expected Formations


The last of the Sunday afternoon games sees Ceará face Palmeiras in Fortaleza. Both sides have had good starts to the season by their own standards, with Palmeiras impressing the most in 2nd place with the most goals scored in the league.

Vozão coach Vagner Mancini has just about a full squad to choose from, with the returns of Boiadeiro, Fabrício and fan favourite Geraldo. Their only worry is central midfielder Michel, who is trying to shake off a knock picked up last week. Ceará should line up as follows: Fernando Henrique, Boiadeiro, Fabrício, Diego Sacoman, Vicente; Michel, Heleno, Thiago Humberto, João Marcos; Osvaldo, Washington.

With the suspension of last week’s goal hero Luan, Felipão will make a tactical change from his side that defeated Avaí 5x0 last week. Defensive midfielder Chico should replace the forward, and Palmeiras should line up with three deep midfielders, congesting the centre of the park. Wellington Paulista may lose his place in the starting line-up to Adriano, with Felipão looking for a more mobile forward to support Kléber.

Palmeiras look like they will have enough about them to pull off an important win this afternoon, Felipão’s anticipation of his opponents looks like it will neutralise Ceará’s central threats. If I was a betting man I would put my money on a 1x0 Palmeiras win.

Expected Formations


Moving on to the two late games, first of all we have two southern teams facing off, with Internacional hosting high-fliers Figueirense. Figueira have been one of the stories of the season so far, winning all three of their home games, drawing with Copa do Brasil champions Vasco and only losing to top side São Paulo in the Morumbi. The away game at the Beira-Rio, a traditionally difficult ground to play at, should prove to be a stern test for the newcomers. However Inter are yet to win at home this season, so the florianopolitano side may well fancy their chances.

Inter have had a very indifferent start so far, their fans being frustrated at the points they have dropped and the several chances that their forwards have passed up. There should be only one change to their side from last week’s draw with Coritiba, with midfielder Oscar returning to the starting line-up. Defensive midfielder Glaydson should make way for his return, with Tinga dropping back to replace the gap left in his absence.

Figueira have some niggling selection problems in their squad, strikers Reinaldo and Lenny are still out injured, while Rhayner joins them after earning a suspension last week. Midfielder Wilson Pittoni suffered an injury last week and will miss out, it will be between Coutinho and Túlio to take his place in the middle of the park.

Figueirense have every right to believe that they can get something out of this match, but Internacional are a team of great quality that appear to just need one result to kick in to a good phase, and this match – at home to a newly promoted side – could be just the fixture they need.

Expected Formations


Finally, the weekend is rounded off at the Serra Dourada in Goiânia, as Atlético Goianiense host Copa do Brasil winners Vasco. Atlético, o Dragão, have had an excellent start to the season by their standards. Before the season began, they were tipped by just about everyone to be one of the four relegated teams, but they have started fantastically, sitting in 8th position. Vasco are only one point ahead in 7th place, and their supporters are still in ecstasy after their Copa win and subsequent Copa Libertadores qualification.

Atlético are completely unchanged from the team that drew 2x2 with Atlético Mineiro last week, while Vasco will make a couple of changes. Left back Ramon and defensive midfielder Allan will miss out, with Márcio Careca and Eduardo Costa taking their places. A victory for either side would put them in a fantastic position after six rounds, and with both sides scoring and conceding their fair share of goals, this one should be exciting.

Expected Formations

Brasileirão In Focus: Internacional

O Colorado, the other big side in Rio Grande do Sul state and the reigning Copa Libertadores champions. Inter had a pretty good campaign last season, but one that was mainly focused on pursuing other trophies (Copa Libertadores then the Club World Cup). As we remember their Club World Cup campaign did not go well at all. They rested their top players for more or less the whole second half of the Brasileirão in preparation, and then they were embarrassed by TP Mazembe in the semi-finals.

They have had a mixed start to 2011, they were eliminated in the second round of the Copa Libertadores by Peñarol, but they strolled to victory in the Campeonato Gaúcho. There was some activity in the transfer market, wonderkid Giuliano was sold to Dnipro in Ukraine, also centre-forward Alecsandro left to join Vasco. Some improvements were made, in particular, defensive midfielder Mario Bolatti who was signed from Fiorentina and has slotted straight in to the first team.

The big story at Internacional has been the meteoric rise of young centre forward Leandro Damião. Last season, he could not get in to the first team, but since Alecsandro’s departure he was given a chance up front on his own. Damião performed superbly, racking up tons of goals and earning a call-up to the national team in the process. A really excellent young striker, he has presence, awareness, and he can play with his back to goal, something that is so important for lone strikers.

O Colorado play a 4-2-3-1 formation, Nei and Kléber provide width from fullback, and Andrezinho and Oscar do the same in the attacking midfield trio. Andres D’Alessandro slots in as the playmaker, often drifting around left and right, and Leandro Damião is the lone target man up top.

They still have a great squad and will surely be in with a chance of winning the league, especially without Copa Libertadores or any other tournament to distract them. You get the feeling that after years of great performances on the continental stage, the Internacional fans would love to see their team pursue their fourth national championship.

Expected formation:

Copa Libertadores Preview: Group Round-up

The group stage of the 2011 Copa Libertadores is coming to a close. Six teams have already booked their place in the next round, but there is plenty of action still to come, with ten more spots to play for in the next round.

We've got eight groups in total, so let's get right to it. Also I've included a little list of links below for you to navigate easier through the groups.

Group 1/Group 2/Group 3/Group 4/Group 5/Group 6/Group 7/Group 8

Group 1

Group 1 was always going to fall under the radar a bit in this year’s Libertadores, being the only group not containing any teams from the two huge CONMEBOL associations, Brazil and Argentina. As it stands, with one match left, Libertad of Paraguay are way out in front (more or less as expected), but the race for second place is still extremely tight.

Currently occupying the second qualifying spot with six points is Universidad San Martín of Peru. A tiny side formed by the local university and with a fanbase largely made up of a handful of dentistry students, San Martín will surely be the biggest shock if they manage to progress to the knockout rounds.

Their rivals for second place have been pretty disappointing in their performances so far, San Luis of Mexico and Once Caldas of Colombia (the 2004 Libertadores champions). But there is only two points separating the three clubs, so either side could realistically end up in the knockout stage.

The final round of games in Group 1 takes place on Tuesday 19th April, with Libertad hosting San Luis, and Once Caldas travelling to Lima to play Universidad San Martín. Each team’s situation is as follows, Libertad are five points clear in first place, and they know that win, lose or draw vs San Luis, they are guaranteed to be through as group winners. This, and the fact that they have a very important league match against Cerro Porteño on the weekend after the San Luis game, means they will probably take it easy against San Luis, possibly resting some first team players.

The team currently in second place, Universidad San Martín, have plenty of reasons to fancy themselves as favourites to progress. They know that one more win at home will guarantee their qualification, and even a draw would put them through if San Luis fail to beat Libertad. However their form has been rather poor, after a miraculous start winning their first two games, they have since fallen to three defeats, conceding 9 goals in the process.

San Martín striker Alemanno celebrates scoring against Once Caldas (Photo: EFE)

The other two sides San Luis and Once Caldas have similar chances to progress, the Mexicans know that the only way they can qualify is if they defeat Libertad and Universidad San Martín fail to beat Once Caldas. This is no impossible task, considering that Libertad are in no need to win their match and that San Martín have been in dreadful form, therefore it would be fair to say that San Luis are favourites to go through. Once Caldas know they need to defeat Universidad San Martín and count on San Luis to fail to beat Libertad. Again, this isn’t impossible, so really it is anyone’s guess at this stage as to who will qualify in second place.

Predictions: Libertad 2x1 San Luis, Univ.San Martín 0x1 Once Caldas
(with these results, Libertad and Once Caldas would advance)


Group 2

We can go through Group 2 rather quickly, as our two qualifiers have already been determined; Junior Barranquilla of Colombia and Grêmio of Brazil. There was never really much doubt in this group, as there exists a huge divide in quality between the top two and bottom two sides. Grêmio of course are a side with quality, they are bicampeões of the Libertadores (they’ve won it twice), and they were certainly the most impressive side in the second half of last season’s Brasileirão. Junior Barranquilla, although not to the same level as Grêmio, are a side with a proud history, and with great quality, with some veteran South American legends like Jhon Viafara and Giovanni Hernandez. The other two, León de Huánuco from Peru and Bolivians Oriente Petrolero, have played the role of whipping boys.

There is one round of games remaining in group 2, but both are of little importance, with Junior and Grêmio comfortably qualified. On Thursday, Junior host León at their lovely Metropolitano stadium in Barranquilla, and Oriente Petrolero play Grêmio in Santa Cruz. If Junior avoid defeat in the match against León, they will qualify as group winners.

Predictions: Junior 2x0 León de Huánuco, Oriente Petrolero 1x3 Grêmio


Group 3

Right from the start, this group was tipped as one of the best in this year’s tournament, and it is certainly living up to the expectation, with the qualification race going right down to the wire. With only one match to go for each team, the group is delicately poised with only four points separating 1st and 4th place. Club América of Mexico are in first position with nine points, Argentinos Juniors and Nacional of Uruguay are both in second with seven points each, and Brazilian champions Fluminense are bottom with five points. The final games will both be on the 20th April, as Nacional play América in the famous Centenário stadium, and its Argentina versus Brazil as Argentinos Juniors play Fluminense.

There are several possible outcomes in this group, with all four teams in with a shout of qualifying, and only Fluminense are unable to finish in first place. The favourites to qualify are Club América of Mexico, they currently top the group and will qualify with a win, a draw, and they can even afford to lose their final game providing Argentinos fail to beat Fluminense. Despite this commanding position, Club América haven’t been particularly impressive so far in this year’s tournament, and their success is possibly more down to their opponents slipping up than América themselves playing well.

It is suggested that their huge home advantage is also playing a part in their success, the Azteca in Mexico City is a terribly long journey for all of their three opponents, and the stadium itself has a significant altitude difference to that of the other three’s home grounds. The evidence is there for all to see; Club América won all three of their home games at the Azteca, and lost in both encounters on the road. Personally, I doubt Club América’s chances of winning their match in Montevideo, and their qualification may end up depending entirely on the other result.

The next best chance of qualification lies with América’s opponents Nacional. Los Albos qualify with a home win in their last game, a draw also sees them through providing Fluminense beat Argentinos by two goals or less. It’s not a particularly easy situation for Nacional, but at the world famous Centenário in Montevideo, Nacional have what it takes to beat anyone, especially a Club América side with poor away form and who will have travelled 7,100km to get to the game.

Argentinos Juniors are currently in second position, but they still have a lot of work to do if they want to advance to the next round. They face Fluminense at home in what will be a very hard game, and they know that they need to win or draw (only if América manage to beat Nacional) to qualify for the knockout phase. Considering the unlikelihood of an América win in the other match, Argentinos will be going in to their final game looking for a win, and even though it is against the team in 4th place, Fluminense are certainly no pushovers.

Fluminense, 2010 Brasileirão champions, were tipped to go far in this year’s tournament, but two points out of their first three games put them in huge trouble. Despite a spirited 3-2 win at home against Club América, Fluminense’s coach Muricy Ramalho left the club, and Flu suffered their second defeat of the campaign against Nacional. That result left them in 4th spot and with only five points from five games, hardly the form of Brazilian champions. The dream is not over though, and Fluminense still hold on to an outside chance and will qualify if they defeat Argentinos Juniors and América manage to win in Uruguay. Neither of these prerequisites for qualification are straightforward, Flu will do very well to win in Buenos Aires, and as we mentioned, América winning in Montevideo is a pretty big ask.

Fluminense's Souza during their defeat against Nacional (Photo: Reuters)

To illustrate the severity of the situation, famous Brazilian sports statistician Tristão Garcia (who always pops up around this time and near the end of the league season) gave Fluminense a calculated 8% chance of qualification, as opposed to the 67, 66 and 59% he gave to América, Nacional and Argentinos respectively. While speaking to TV Globo, Tristão went even further and claimed that Fluminense qualifying would be like “a ray of lightning striking in the same spot three times”. Perhaps a bit of an overreaction, but it is undeniable that Flu are up against it.

Predictions: Nacional 2x0 Club América, Argentinos Juniors 3x2 Fluminense
(with these results, Argentinos and Nacional would qualify)


Group 4

With one game to go, a glance at the Group 4 standings would give any South American fan quite a surprise. Before the start of the tournament, this group gave the impression of being rather predictable, with Vélez Sársfield and their wealth of attackers being tipped to walk away with top spot. The two Chilean sides, Universidad Católica and Unión Española were expected to battle it out against each other for second place, and Caracas FC from the Venezuelan capital weren’t given a chance.

Now that all the teams have played five games, the group is looking rather different. Vélez have struggled to impress, epitomized by throwing away a 3-1 lead to lose at home against Universidad Católica, and they currently sit in third spot. The two Chilean sides played out an exciting match against one another in the first week, but neither side have really got going, Universidad Católica in second with eight points, and Unión Española already eliminated.

With nine points, the unfancied Caracas FC side leads the group. When they lost their first game 3-0 against Vélez, they were perhaps unlucky to concede three goals, but they offered little in attack. Since then, they won home and away against Unión, and recorded an excellent 3-1 win in Santiago against Universidad Católica, where they managed to score three times in under three minutes. Even if Caracas still fails to qualify, they can be very proud of their campaign.

As I have mentioned, only three of the four sides still have a chance of qualifying, but these final fixtures are sure to bring plenty of excitement. Both games take place on April 14th, with Caracas hosting Vélez Sársfield and the two Chilean sides facing off against eachother, this time at the Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, the home ground of Universidad Católica.

Caracas players celebrate their win against UC (Photo: Reuters)

To preview each side’s requirements for qualification, let’s start with the leaders Caracas FC. Caracas have a very tricky game against Vélez, they lost the away leg of this fixture 3-0, but they know that they just need one point to guarantee qualification. Furthermore, if Universidad Católica lose in the other match, Caracas will qualify automatically regardless of their result with Vélez.

Universidad Católica are in a fairly decent position to qualify, because thanks to their superior goal difference over Caracas, they also only require one point to guarantee qualification. Similar to Caracas, they also have an ‘emergency safety net’, as if Vélez lose their match in Venezuela, UC will qualify even if they lose to Unión.

In third place but still with a chance to win the entire group, Vélez will be looking to make up for their average performance in this year’s Libertadores by sealing their place in the knockout round. Just like the other two sides in the running, they know that a win in their last game guarantees their qualification, and if UC lose their match, Vélez can progress with a draw.

The neutral fans will surely love to see Caracas qualifying for the next round, but one can’t help thinking that if Vélez play to their potential, they will easily brush aside the current group leaders. In the other match, I’d be surprised if UC failed to win against Unión, they are a superior side and Unión will probably be focusing on improving their domestic form now that they are out of the Libertadores.

Predictions: Caracas 1x1 Vélez Sársfield, Universidad Católica 2x0 Unión Española
(with these results, Universidad Católica and Caracas would qualify)


Group 5

Unlike the other seven groups, we have a little bit longer to go in Group 5, as all four sides have two games remaining as opposed to just one. However judging by the excitement and drama we’ve seen so far, the more games the better. In a group with the early tournament favourites Santos, two huge South American sides in Cerro Porteño and Colo Colo, and the tricky Venezuelans Deportivo Táchira, we knew it wasn’t going to be dull, and it certainly hasn’t been.

Santos’ underachieving has come as a surprise, with a squad that can boast the likes of Neymar, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Elano, Zé Eduardo and Maikon Leite going forward, they were expected to run away with this group, scoring hatfuls of goals in the process. The reality was very different, they started with a frustrating 0-0 away to Táchira, and it appeared the team began to panic and become preoccupied with the prospect of failure. They then went their first three games without a win, firing their manager in the process.

Last week Santos finally managed to get their first win of the group, a 3-2 victory at home to Colo Colo, but they still managed to do it the hard way. Things were looking rosy for the Peixe as Neymar jinked through the Chilean defence to make it 3-0, but after picking up a comical second yellow card for his celebration, the rest of the Santos team embarked on a path of self-destruction, having Elano and Zé Eduardo sent off and all three suspended for their crucial match next week.

Santos striker Neymar (far right) recieves his red card against Colo Colo (Photo: AFP)

Santos play away from home against Cerro Porteño on April 14th, and they know that they will be eliminated if they lose and Colo Colo subsequently beat Deportivo Táchira at home. With Neymar, Elano and Zé Eduardo suspended, they will have a tough time overcoming a side like Cerro, who can call upon exciting midfielder Juan Manuel Iturbe, and the seemingly unstoppable centre-forward Roberto Nanni. Cerro, currently in first position in the group, will seal their qualification with a win against Santos, and they look very good value to progress.

In the other match this week, Colo Colo will take a huge step toward qualification if they can see off Deportivo Táchira at home. Colo Colo have so far been a team dangerous in attack, but with many gaps in defence, in four games they have managed to score eleven goals, but they are still with a -1 goal difference, conceding a woeful twelve goals in only four games. Colo Colo should be confident in this game though, they won this fixture 4-2 away in Venezuela on matchday two, and they will expect another three points playing at home.

Predictions: Colo Colo 2x1 Deportivo Táchira, Cerro Porteño 1x1 Santos
Santos 3x0 Deportivo Táchira, Colo Colo 0x2 Cerro Porteño
(with these results, Cerro Porteño and Santos will qualify)


Group 6

In Group 6 we have another thrilling last day lined up. Jorge Wilstermann of Bolivia are very far back with only one point, but the top three, Internacional, Jaguares and Emelec, are separated by only two points. The final matches will take place on Tuesday 19th, as Jorge Wilstermann take on Jaguares, and Emelec travel to the south of Brazil to face Internacional at their formidable Beira Rio stadium.

Ecuadorian side Emelec are currently sitting in third position, but missed a huge chance to be sitting on top of the group when they were held 0-0 by Jorge Wilstermann last week. To put this result into context, Jorge Wilstermann lost all their first four matches, and they currently play their football in the Bolivian second division. It’s not going to be too easy for them to qualify; they need to beat Internacional away from home, but could also qualify with a draw if Jaguares suffer a surprise defeat against Jorge Wilstermann.

Internacional, the reigning Libertadores champions, haven’t really convinced anyone yet in this tournament, despite their ten points and +9 goal difference. Most of the unrest has come from their own support, and on Friday the board decided to sack their coach Celso Roth, the man who won the tournament with them last year.

Roth’s relationship with the Inter fans has been quite frosty ever since their disappointing World Club Cup performance, losing to African side TP Mazembe. Paulo Roberto Falcão, Internacional and AS Roma legend, will take over on Monday, and the board will be hoping that the appointment of such a fan’s favourite will keep the support happy and get the team through to the next round. Inter go in to their last game at home just needing to avoid defeat, and I’d be very surprised if they didn’t manage it.

The other side who are in the running for qualification are the Mexicans Jaguares de Chiapas. A fairly unimpressive yet efficient campaign so far, Jaguares are left with a final game against Jorge Wilstermann and will be highly favoured to win. Jaguares qualify with a win, a draw if Emelec fail to win, and even a loss if Emelec lose to Internacional.

Predictions: Internacional 3x0 Emelec, Jorge Wilstermann 0x2 Jaguares
(with these results, Internacional and Jaguares will qualify)


Group 7

Similar to group two, both of our qualifiers have already been decided, as the irresistible Cruzeiro and Argentinian giants Estudiantes progress to the next phase. The final game is on the 16th, as Guaraní play Deportes Tolima, and the two qualified sides clash in Buenos Aires. You may think that Estudiantes will go into the last game hoping to win the group, but thanks to Cruzeiro’s unbelievable +16 goal difference, Estudiantes would have to win that match by eight goals.

Cruzeiro have undoubtedly been the top performers in the Libertadores this season, their home results were fantastic, a 5-0 win over Estudiantes, 4-0 over Guaraní, and then 6-1 against Deportes Tolima. The Raposa really do have a good chance of going all the way in this year’s tournament, as one can’t really see many teams capable of beating them on current form.

Predictions: Guaraní 1x2 Deportes Tolima, Estudiantes 2x2 Cruzeiro


Group 8

Finally, we come to Group 8, and going in to the last match, one side have already qualified, and the other three are fighting for second place. This was really the perfect group for Libertadores fans, we have the historical greats Peñarol and Independiente, Libertadores stalwarts LDU Quito, and Godoy Cruz, the first team from Mendoza to ever qualify for the Copa Libertadores.

The second qualifier will be determined on Tuesday night, as Peñarol host Independiente, and Godoy Cruz travel to Quito to play LDU.

Peñarol celebrate their qualification to the knockout stages.

Peñarol qualified after beating Godoy Cruz in their last match, and surprisingly they sit in first position despite suffering two heavy defeats away from home, 3-0 versus Independiente and 5-0 against LDU Quito.

LDU play home to Godoy Cruz on Tuesday in Quito, where they famously hold a significant altitude advantage over the majority of their opponents. They only have to avoid defeat, which is something their experienced Libertadores squad should be able to deal with, against Libertadores first-timers Godoy Cruz.

It has been a decent campaign for Godoy Cruz, flying the flag for the Mendoza region of Argentina, being the first team from there to qualify for the Libertadores proper. They have earned seven points so far, with wins at home to LDU and away to fellow Argentines Independiente. La Tomba now have the ultimate Libertadores test if they want to qualify, they have to win in the famous Estadio Casa Blanca.

Independiente, only two points back from the other two, do still have a chance to qualify, but that chance is pretty tiny. El Rojo need LDU and Godoy Cruz to draw, and at the same time they have to defeat Peñarol by eight goals.

Predictions: Peñarol 2x1 Independiente, LDU Quito 3x0 Godoy Cruz
(with these results, Peñarol and LDU will qualify)


The ties for the Copa Libertadores knockout rounds are decided by group form, not by a draw, so these final results will have a big impact on who faces who in the next round. With the predictions I gave, the knockout ties would be as follows:

Junior Barranquilla x Once Caldas
Cruzeiro x Santos
Libertad x Caracas
Internacional x Nacional
Cerro Porteño x LDU Quito
Peñarol x Estudiantes
Universidad Católica x Jaguares
Argentinos Juniors x Gremio

I think you’d agree that those scores throw up some interesting ties, but with several teams very close in terms of their performance, there are so many possibilities. A couple of really interesting ones which could realistically come up, first of all Internacional x Grêmio is a real possibility, two fierce rivals, and would make an amazing Libertadores tie. Possibly the most exciting though is the prospect of Peñarol x Nacional. One of the biggest rivalries in South American football, often regarded as one of the biggest rivalries in the world, it’s a very distinct possibility if you consider the records of the two sides.

Copa Libertadores preview

One of the most-watched football tournaments in the world, the group stage of the Copa Libertadores gets properly underway this week. The tournament has the same structure as the UEFA Champions League, in that there are eight groups of four teams, and the top two teams progress to the knockout rounds. In South America, all but two of the opening group games will take place this week, with Fluminense x Argentinos Juniors played last week (a 2-2 draw), and Independiente x Peñarol to take place next week.

So with 14 games, 28 teams, 11 nations represented and a stonking 49,000km to be travelled by the away teams, you could be forgiven for feeling a little bit out of your depth. However, have no fear, as we preview all of this week's action, game-by-game.

Tuesday 15th February

Vélez Sársfield x Caracas
Deportes Tolima x Guaraní
Deportivo Tachira x Santos
San Luis x Libertad
América x Nacional

First up we go to Buenos Aires, where Torneo Apertura runners-up Vélez Sársfield take on the 2009/10 Venezuelan champions Caracas. Both teams have just started the 2010/11 season in each of their respective nations, Vélez played out an exciting 2-2 draw with Independiente, while Caracas are 5 games in with a fairly poor 7 points. By all accounts this should be a pretty straighforward win for Vélez, as Caracas are not a team for them to fear, a far-cry from the side that shocked the whole of South America by reaching the quarter finals in 2009.

Next we go north to the west of Colombia, where Deportes Tolima play Guaraní of Paraguay in the Group 7 opener. There has been much talk surrounding Tolima recently, after famously eliminating Brazilian giants Corinthians in the qualifying rounds. It is generally accepted that Corinthians did not take their opponents seriously enough, and were caught off guard by Tolima's high tempo attacking play during the second leg in Ibagué. Los Piajos will have no such element of surprise tonight, as they take on a Guaraní side who will have prepared well for this encounter. It is imperative for each of these sides to take points off each other in this group, as with Cruzeiro and Estudiantes de la Plata widely expected to sail through in first and second spot, every point is absolutely vital for these other two sides.

We stay in the north of the continent for our next game, as the tournament's early favourites Santos begin their campaign with an away trip to Venezuela to take on Deportivo Táchira. Santos have made a good start to the season, sitting in second place in the Campeonato Paulista, while their opponents Táchira are in an interesting position, having already sealed their qualification to next year's group stages by winning the Apertura in Venezuela. O Peixe expect to start with Neymar up front, partered by either Keirrison or the impressive Maikon Leite. It will be Neymar's first appearence for Santos since winning the South American U-20 Championships in Peru. Santos will be looking for three points in what they hope will be a long and successful Libertadores campaign, while Táchira may just be hoping not to lose by several goals.

Finally we go to Mexico for the two late kick-offs, as San Luis host Libertad and América play Nacional in what is undoubtedly the game of the day. One factor in these games is the absolutely huge distances that the away sides have had to travel, Libertad have gone 6,600km from the Paraguayan capital of Asunción, while Nacional have travelled the longest distance anyone will travel in this year's Libertadores, a truly stunning 7,100km from Montevideo. The games themselves should be interesting affairs, Libertad will be aiming to get some points on the board early in Group 1, a group they are expecting to top. In the other match, every single point will be so valuable in Group 3, and with Fluminense and Argentinos Juniors playing out a 2-2 draw in the opening game, either of these sides will be desperate to sit in first place at the end of the week.


Wednesday 16th February

Unión Española x Universidad Católica
Cruzeiro x Estudiantes de la Plata
Emelec x Internacional
Jaguares x Jorge Wilstermann
Once Caldas x Universidad San Martín

Wednesday's action kicks off in Santiago with an all-Chilean affair as Unión Española take on Universidad Católica in Group 4. Although not a traditional rivalry, these two Santiago clubs will both be absolutely desperate for the points in this one. Group 4 looks like an easy win for the previously mentioned Vélez Sársfield, so these teams will regard each other as the direct competition for second place. It promises to be a good game of football, as both of these sides have an attractive, flowing style of play. Unión usually adopt a 4-2-1-3 with Uruguayan playmaker Ligüera pulling the strings behind the front three, while Universidad go for a more "Italian" 4-3-1-2.

Next is the game of the round, and arguably the game of the entire group stage, Cruzeiro x Estudiantes de la Plata. A replay of the 2009 final (Estudiantes ended up winners on that occasion), these are two of the biggest clubs in recent Copa Libertadores history. However Estudiantes will go in to this year's tournament without the coach that presided over their recent success (and the Libertadores win over Cruzeiro in 2009), Alejandro Sabella, who decided to leave his post last month. The shock of Sabella's departure may cause problems for the Argentine champions, however the talented and hard-working squad is still there, and they will be expecting nothing less than victory. I'm expecting a close game in this one, possibly a draw or perhaps Cruzeiro to sneak it by one goal.

While all the fuss is going on in Minas Gerais, the reigning champions Internacional begin their defence of the trophy in Group 6 away to Emelec of Ecuador. In preparation for this tournament, Inter have adopted an interesting strategy and are only using their B team in the Campeonato Gaúcho, choosing not to over-work their stars for the Libertadores and the Brasileirão. They should win this game and go on to qualify comfortably from the group, however I do not feel Inter have been anywhere near the same side that won last year's tournament.

After the 2010 success, praise was heaped upon Andres D'Alessandro, Tinga and super-sub Giuliano, while the invaluable play of winger Taison was somewhat overlooked, and he was sold to Metalist Kharkiv in the Ukraine. Since then, Inter have suffered from "possession without penetration" without a pacey, direct player like Taison. This frailty was exposed to the whole world in December, where they failed to make possession count and fell to TP Mazembe in the World Club Cup. In the recent transfer window, they neglected to replace Taison with someone of similar attributes, opting instead to sign two more Argentines, forward Fernando Cavenaghi and defensive midfielder Mario Bolatti, and Zé Roberto from Vasco. It is my opinion that if Inter try to play the same way as they have since last year, they will really struggle against any organised side. 

The other game in group six kicks off just afterwards, with Jaguares of Mexico hosting Bolivian side Jorge Wilstermann. Both teams are in interesting positions coming in to this year's tournament, the Mexican side have started very poorly in the 2011 Torneo Clausura which puts them in real danger of relegation this year, so they will most likely be focusing on improving their domestic form as opposed to preparing for continental competition. However Jorge Wilstermann are in an even worse position, finishing in last place in the second half of last year and finding themselves relegated to the second tier of Bolivian football. Understandably, Wilster will have their eyes on domestic promotion instead of Libertadores success, though their domestic campaign does not kick-off until June. Poor domestic form aside, Jaguares are clear favourites in this one, expect a good few goals for the home team.

The final game on Wednesday night takes place in Colombia, as Once Caldas take on Peruvian champions Universidad San Martín. This will be an extremely tough match for San Martín, as Once are very hard to beat at the Estadio Palogrande in Manizales, this superb home form being one of the main reasons for their surprise Libertadores success in 2004. San Martín will have a good go at it though, they have very little to lose as they do not exactly have a long history or large numbers of fanatic supporters. Their story is an interesting one, founded in 2004 by the local university (the Universidad San Martín de Porres), they have since won three Peruvian titles in their six short years in operation. They have a small support, mainly just students at the university, and their mascot is a man dressed as a tooth, a homage to the fact that most of their fans are studying dentistry.

Thursday 17th February

Léon de Húanuco x Junior
Grêmio x Oriente Petrolero
Cerro Porteño x Colo-Colo
Godoy Cruz x LDU Quito

Opening Thursday night's matches, we go to Peru with Léon de Húanuco taking on Junior Barranquilla of Colombia in Group 2. This is Léon's first appearence in the Copa Libertadores, after reaching the final of the Peruvian championships this year. Unlike the previously mentioned San Martín, Léon have a good number of fans, and they will be out in force on Thursday night to try and unsettle their Colombian opponents. This is an absolutely key game in Group 2, as with Grêmio expected to run away with the top spot, there are three fairly low-profile sides fighting for the second place. Additionally, this game should be quite an interesting tactical battle, with the home side adopting a 3-4-1-2 against Junior's favoured 4-3-1-2.

The other game in Group 2 kicks off right after, with group favourites Grêmio hosting Bolivian champions Oriente Petrolero. With the sale of their top-scorer Jonas to Valencia at the start of the year, there is definitely a big gap in this Grêmio squad. Also with replacement André Lima misfiring up front, it looks like they may struggle for goals this year. It is expected that Grêmio may find things tough in this year's Copa Libertadores, but they should not have any problems against the refineros from Santa Cruz.

Later we have one of the most important games of the round, one sure to attract a lot of attention from the two nations involves, as Cerro Porteño, the biggest club in Paraguay, take on Colo-Colo, Chile's biggest side. This promises to be a grand spectacle, with La Olla Azulgrana in Asunción bound to be full to the brim. I'm expecting a win for the away side, as they seem to have the better squad at the present time, all that remains to be seen is if they can overcome Cerro's home advantage. Keep an eye out for Colo-Colo's front two, Ezequiel Miralles and Esteban Paredes, a partnership that brings plenty of goals.

The last game of the week sees the Libertadores group stage come to the Argentine province of Mendoza for the first time as Godoy Cruz host Ecuadorian champions LDU Quito. You would be hard pressed to find a tougher game for Godoy Cruz to start their Libertadores story than against veterans and 2008 champions LDU Quito. A very organised and very hard to beat side, Liga de Quito will have their eyes on the trophy this year. At their home ground in Quito they are a huge challenge for any team thanks to their stadium being at such high altitude, and they pride themselves in their fitness and being able to stretch their opponents for the full 90 minutes, in high altitude or not. Godoy Cruz will have a very tough job in this one, but perhaps they can get a slice of beginner's luck.

So that's it! It promises to be a great week of Libertadores action, and hopefully reading this has given you a bit of useful background information. Regarding where to watch the games, in Europe, www.bet365.com will be showing every single Libertadores game this week through their Live Streaming service. It is completely free of charge and all you need to do is register on the site and you can get access to every Libertadores match this season, straight from your computer. For readers in the UK, you will be pleased to hear that the Copa Libertadores will be shown live on TV thanks to the new Premier Sports channel. They will broadcast Cruzeiro x Estudiantes on Wednesday night, check their website for more information.