Campeonato Brasileiro 2011 preview: Round 15 (part two)

Continuing on with the preview of this weekend's Brasileirão, let's turn our attention to Sunday's afternoon matches.

Santos x Ceará (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Pacaembu)

Both Santos and Ceará have been struggling of late, so a win for either side would be vital. Ceará are coming into this game off the back of an extremely disappointing defeat at home to Avaí, where they were completely outplayed and beaten 3x0. Santos, the 2011 Copa Libertadores champions, are also in a poor phase, losing their last three matches and gaining heavy criticism from their supporters.

Against Ceará, Santos should not really have many problems and will more than likely win comfortably. They will be without wonderkid Neymar, who is suspended, but they will still be able to field a strong lineup capable of seeing off the Vozão.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS 

Internacional x Cruzeiro (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Beira-Rio)

Internacional and Cruzeiro face off against one another in Porto Alegre in what could certainly turn out to be the game of the round. Both teams have slumped a little over the past month, but they possess strong squads and we should see in exciting yet even match. Inter and Cruzeiro are both poised to go on a good run of form, and a win in this match could be perfect to kick that off.

Inter remain with several selection issues, Guiñazu, Zé Roberto, Bolatti and Gilberto are all injured, Oscar and Juan are away with the Brazilian U-20 squad, and Kleber and Wilson Matias are suspended. Coach Osmar Loss has been using a 4-5-1 formation recently, but with so many injuries in the midfield, it is expected that he will have to change his shape. 

Cruzeiro aren't without their own problems either, Thiago Ribeiro and Roger remain on the sidelines injured, but coach Joel Santana can still count on Montillo and Wallyson going forward. This will be an intriguing match, where we should see some goals and excitement. In my opinion, Cruzeiro will come through as narrow winners, but in truth this game could go either way.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

Atlético-PR x Corinthians (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Arena da Baixada)

Leaders Corinthians continue on their run of favourable fixtures, in the past week they have faced 17th placed Avaí, 20th placed América and now they take on Atlético Paranaense in 19th place. This game could be dangerous though, as o Furacão have hit some decent form of late and look tough to beat at home in Curitiba. 

Corinthians have had their leader credentials well tested over the past few weeks, and some cracks are beginning to appear. Their defence does not look as assured as it was earlier in the season, and some particularly poor performances from young goalkeeper Renan has now made coach Tite axe him in favour of their terribly inexperienced third goalkeeper Danilo Fernandes. With their opponents visibly rattled by recent results, Atlético will be going all out for the upset.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

América-MG x Fluminense (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Arena do Jacaré)

InternaciIn the last of Sunday's afternoon matches América Mineiro host last year's champions Fluminense in Sete Lagoas. América, currently in 20th position in the league standings, have been in some real trouble of late and team morale appears to be at an all-time low. Fan's favourite Givanildo has came in as their new manager to try and steady the ship, but they will find it extremely hard against this Fluminense side.

Fluminense coach Abel Braga looks to have finally settled into the job and Fluminense are on their best run of form of this season so far. This week the club has been rocked with speculation surrounding the possible exit of national team striker Fred, with the 27 year old claiming he has recieved death threats from certain sections of the Fluminense support. They will continue without him this weekend, with Rafael Moura and Rafael Sobis playing up front. 

In Brasil, scandals like this often seem to affect on-field performance, but Fluminense are looking too good at this moment and should win this match comfortably.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

There you have it, Sunday's afternoon games all previewed. The final part of the preview is coming soon, a look at the three matches on Sunday evening, which includes an interesting clássico.

Campeonato Brasileiro 2011 preview: Round 14 (part two)

We are back with the preview for Round 14 of the 2011 Brasileirão, we still have two move games tonight to cover, and then tomorrow's match-ups.

Cruzeiro x Flamengo (Wednesday 3rd - 21h50 Arena do Jacaré)

Cruzeiro host Flamengo in Sete Lagoas in what is certainly this week’s headline match. The home side have had some difficulties of late and after some good performances in the past month or so, they have now suffered two straight defeats against lesser opponents. Sitting in mid-table, they will be desperate to claw their way back up into a Copa Libertadores place. Cruzeiro are still without Thiago Ribeiro and Roger, but will have a strong line-up to call upon.

Flamengo are the league's form team at the moment and they remain as the only unbeaten side in the Brasileirão. Craque Ronaldinho Gaúcho is hitting form and sits at the top of the goalscoring charts, while Thiago Neves is putting in some excellent performances in the midfield. On paper, this one looks like a nailed-on Flamengo win, but Cruzeiro have an uncanny knack of beating Flamengo, in fact they have been victorious in the last six league meetings between the sides. Expect an even game without many goals.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS 

Coritiba x Palmeiras (Wednesday 3rd - 21h50 Couto Pereira)

The last time that Coritiba and Palmeiras met at the Couto Pereira, the home side recorded a historic win, defeating Palmeiras 6x0 in the Copa do Brasil. Times have changed now, Palmeiras are a much stronger side who are secure in defence and Coritiba's momentum seems to have slowed down.

Palmeiras welcome back ídolos Marcos and Kleber to the starting 11, and new signing Henrique makes in the squad, although he will most likely start on the bench. Coritiba are the favourites for this one, despite Palmeiras' high league position. This should be an interesting match, with Coritiba investing their hopes in their attack and Palmeiras doing the same only in defence. Expect a tight scoreline, perhaps even a 0x0 draw with plently of missed chances.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

São Paulo x Bahia (Thursday 4th - 21h00 Morumbi)

Moving on to Thursday's games, we start at the Morumbi as São Paulo take on Bahia. New São Paulo boss Adílson Batista has had a pretty unconvincing start to his reign, especially at home. His only two home games in charge have ended in disappointment, with a defeat to Vasco and a draw against Atlético-GO. On Thursday they will be looking to bounce back against a Bahia side struggling in defence.

Bahia are a side that have been suffering from similar problems, they have managed good results against big sides away from home, but their home form is lamentable. O tricolor baiano should make it very difficult for São Paulo, and if their defence can manage to stop São Paulo's wonderkid Lucas, they might just be able to sneak a result.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

Fluminense x Internacional (Thursday 4th - 21h00 Engenhão)

Internacional travel to Rio de Janeiro to take on a rejuvenated Fluminense side at the Engenhão, and with the return of some key players for the away side, we could be in for a cracking match. Since Abel Braga took over as Fluminense boss, the morale amongst the squad has beed good, but results have been poor. Last weekend though, Flu managed a 4x0 win over Ceará in what was certainly their best performance of the season so far. Forwards Fred, Souza and Marquinho all seem to be in good form, and they will certainly be very hard to beat at the moment.

Their opponents Internacional are trying to pull themselves out of a disappointing phase, littered with injury problems and unconvincing results. However striker Leandro Damião will make his return against Flu and when he is in the side the whole team seem to function better. Zé Roberto is still injured and Oscar and Juan are with the Brazilian under-20 squad, but Inter are starting to get their big men back. This promises to be an excellent game, both sides are needing the points and there should be goals.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

Atlético-GO x Atlético-PR (Thursday 4th - 21h00 Serra Dourada)

The last game of the weekend sees a battle of the atléticos as Atlético Goianiense take on Atlético Paranaense in Goiânia. This match may be forgotten amongst the other more high profile encounters, but it promises to be an intriguing game with both sides making big improvements over the past few weeks. The home side are unbeaten in their last three games, and when you consider those games were against São Paulo, Cruzeiro and then Internacional, that is even more impressive. 

Atlético Paranaense, o Furacão, had a terrible start to this year's campaign, only picking up two points in their first ten matches. However, wins against Botafogo and Santos (a thrilling 3x2) in the past ten days has breathed new life into the players and lifted them up off the bottom of the league. The signing of Uruguayan striker Santiágo 'Morro' García has given their attack some much-needed firepower and who knows how far this resurgence can take them.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

 

Campeonato Brasileiro 2011 preview: Round 6 (part one)

We have arrived in the sixth round of matches in this Brasileirão season. Here's a quick preview of the weekend's action starting with Saturday's matches. Part two will be posted tomorrow

First up on Saturday is a mouth-watering clash between Flamengo and Atlético Mineiro at the Engenhão. Both sides are under some pressure from their supporters after poor recent results, Atlético have now gone three games without a win, while Flamengo have yet to win since the opening round of the season.

With the suspensions of Willians and Bottinelli, Flamengo will adopt a different strategy on Saturday, opting to play an extra central defender and arranging themselves in a 3-5-2 shape. Luiz Antônio keeps his place in midfield after debuting in last week’s 0x0 with Botafogo, Wanderley comes in for Diego Maurício up front and Ronaldo Angelim will play as the aforementioned third centre-back.

O Galo welcome back full-backs Patric and Guilherme Santos for this weekend, Giovanni Augusto makes way for Dudu Cearense to start in the midfield and Guilherme – the scorer of last week’s all important equalising goal – starts up front in the place of Mancini.

What we have here is two teams desperately looking for a win, and we should expect quite an open match with opportunities and (hopefully) goals, a stark contrast from Flamengo’s uninspired stalemate last week. Fla’s left back Junior Cesar spoke this week at a press conference ahead of the match and his comments were very revealing about the mentality at the club. He said that the players realise their performances have not been up to standard, and that “to win is more important than playing well”.

Expected Formations


Atlético Paranaense face Bahia on Saturday in Curitiba with the home side suffering heavily in this early part of the season. We are five games in and Atlético have only registered one point and scored only one goal. The recent signing of former Nacional striker Santiago García is a superb piece of business and certainly a step in the right direction, but it is generally accepted that o Furacão will need more than only the 20 year old Uruguayan.

On Saturday, both teams should keep very similar line-ups to those of the last round. With Santiago García not yet eligible to make his debut, Guerrón and Nieto will once again start up front for Atlético. For Bahia, forward Júnior will receive his first full start for the club after he replaced the injured Souza in last week’s win over Fluminense.

O Tricolor will also be able to call upon Jobson, who returned to Brasil on Thursday after a hearing in Switzerland in regards to his doping case of 2009. The case has been well publicised, (I touched on it here) and this hearing is to judge whether he will have to serve his full two year suspension, which was previously reduced to six months. The committee have six weeks to make their final decision, in which time Jobson will be free to play for Bahia.

Expected Formations


The late game on Saturday is an interesting encounter between Cruzeiro and Coritiba in Sete Lagoas. Only a few months ago, while Cruzeiro were turning over every team in their Copa Libertadores group, and Coritiba were charging through the Copa do Brasil, these two teams were widely regarded as the two form teams in Brasil. Since then, that form has escaped both clubs, with Coritiba losing in the Copa do Brasil final and sitting in 16th position in the league. Cruzeiro have fallen even harder, being knocked out in the Libertadores last 16 and yet to record a win in this year’s Brasileirão, a Raposa find themselves in 18th position.

After last week’s draw against América-MG, Cuca left his post as Cruzeiro manager, with experienced carioca Joel Santana taking the reins. There will be a few changes to the Cruzeiro side from last week, with injuries to both full-backs Gilberto and Pablo, defensive midfielder Marquinhos Paraná will deputise at left back and Diego Renan starts at right back after recovering from a nasty hamstring tear. Also coming in is midfielder Everton, who should form a trio of central midfielders alongside Henrique and Fabrício, with Montillo as the advanced playmaker.

For Coritiba, they should maintain the same team that drew 1x1 with Internacional last Sunday. The only possible change comes in the shape of fan’s favourite Marcos Aurélio, who has spent the start of the season injured. If Marcelo Oliveira decides to start Marcos Aurélio, he will play up front alongside Bill, most likely taking the place of Everton Ribeiro.

Expected Formations

Campeonato Brasileiro 2011 review: Round 1

After a frantic few months of state championships and cup competition for clubs in Brasil, the real work starts here as the Campeonato Brasileiro 2011 got underway this weekend with every team in action. Join me each week for a complete review of the round of games, along with weekly awards and highlights.

The 2011 season kicked off on Saturday evening at the Moacyrzão in Macaé, Rio de Janeiro as Flamengo strolled to victory against Avaí. It was quite a one-sided match as with one eye on their Copa do Brasil semi-final on Wednesday, Avaí did not look completely motivated and failed to deal with Flamengo's attacking threats. Goals from Bottinelli, Ronaldinho Gaúcho, Thiago Neves and Diego Maurício gave a 4x0 win to the Mengão.

In Minas Gerais, Atlético Mineiro got their season off to a wonderful start with a 3x0 win over Atlético Paranaense. Another game that was never really in doubt, an early goal from defensive midfielder Toró and then two headed goals from Magno Alves sealed the points for o Galo. Atlético Paranaense have reasons to be worried in the light of this result, as they failed to put any real pressure on their opponents and were very one-dimensional in attack.

Ceará and Vasco, two sides who are looking forward to vital Copa do Brasil semi-finals on Wednesday, faced eachother in Brasil's northeast and Vasco ran out 3x1 winners. There is not terribly much we can take from this match, as both sides fielded changed line-ups, resting almost all of their preferred XI. The game itself was a good one, with fringe players on both sides striving to impress. Ceará centre back Cleber gave the Vozão the lead, but three excellent goals (two from Bernardo and one from Jéferson) won the game for Vasco.

Saturday night's late game resulted in a 1x1 draw between Santos and Internacional. This game was one of the most hyped of the opening round, but with Santos fielding a complete second-string XI ahead of their Copa Libertadores semi-final this week, the match turned in to a bit of an anticlimax. Keirrison gave Santos the lead from the penalty spot after Tiago Alves was fouled by Daniel. Zé Roberto equalised for Inter before half time, converting a cross from Oscar. Both sides had chances in the second half, but neither could find the winning goal.

Moving on to Sunday afternoon, and out in the São Paulo countryside in São José do Rio Preto, Palmeiras got off to a winning start by beating Botafogo 1x0. As many had expected it was a tight game, neither side dominating completely, but Palmeiras had the edge and sealed the three points with a stunning goal from captain Kléber. There was more good news for the Verdão when club ídolo Pierre made a late substitute appearance. The defensive midfielder had been suffering from a long term injury, his last match coming in November 2010.

In one of the biggest games of the weekend, Grêmio and Corinthians faced off in what was a tight clash, ending 2x1 to the away side Corinthians. Grêmio took the lead with a penalty from Douglas after Chicão was adjudged to have fouled Leandro inside the area. O Timão equalised with their own penalty kick not long afterwards, Liedson being tripped by Lúcio, and captain Chicão made up for his earlier error by tucking away the penalty. Corinthians sealed the comeback ten minutes later through Liedson, the former Sporting Lisbon hitman pulled off a lovely bit of technique with a flying volley from six yards.

The other two afternoon games threw up some surprises, Coritiba falling 0x1 to Atlético Goianiense, and newly-promoted Figueirense pulling off an excellent 1x0 win against title favourites Cruzeiro. The former was a tight affair, with both teams making several mistakes in the midfield and struggling to establish a rhythm. The match was won with fifteen minutes left, with o Dragão's giant striker Marcão latching on to a Thiago Feltri cross.

In Florianópolis, Figueirense pulled off the shock of the week against Cruzeiro, and they were well worth the three points. Figueira found it difficult in the first half, but after taking the lead through a fortuitous own goal from Cruzeiro midfielder Marquinhos Paraná, they pressed their opponents and looked likely to score a second. Cruzeiro may have reasons to be worried.

The evening games on Sunday kicked off with Fluminense taking on São Paulo at Vasco's São Januario stadium. São Paulo ran out 2x0 winners, but it was not a particularly impressive display from either side. The first half was filled with errors from both teams, with Dagoberto's opening goal the only highlight. In the second half, São Paulo improved slightly while Fluminense did not, and wonderkid Lucas increased the lead with a superb goal.

The final game of the round was perhaps the most exciting, as two newly-promoted sides América Mineiro and Bahia faced off against eachother in Sete Lagoas. The match began at an excellent pace, with Bahia in the driving seat, and they took the lead with the weekend's fourth penalty. Thiago Carleto handled the ball in the area and Souza converted the penalty to put Bahia 1x0 up.

In the second half it was América who took control, equalising in the 3rd minute with a debut goal from Rodriguinho. O Coelho kept up the pressure, and could have won the game with the chances they had, but they got there in the end, with substitute Alessandro making it 2x1 with only three minutes left to go.

PLAYER OF THE ROUND: Ronaldinho Gaúcho (Flamengo)

Photo: Fábio Castro

Hated on Friday, loved on Saturday, Ronaldinho Gaúcho's performance at the weekend paints a clear picture of the fickle nature of Brazilian football supporters. After being criticised, booed and ridiculed after Flamengo's Copa do Brasil exit, Ronaldinho won over the haters by turning in a man-of-the-match performance in Fla's 4x0 win over Avaí.

His little touches, flicks and nutmegs made you feel like you were back in the Camp Nou in 2005, and his goal was very well taken also. If Ronaldinho can stay fit and in this type of form, it would be hard to look past Flamengo for the title.

VILLAIN OF THE ROUND: Marcelo Oliveira (Coritiba)

Photo: Paulo Pinto

Manager of the league's 'surprise package' Coritiba, Marcelo Oliveira could not have had a worse start to the 2011 season. With their first game at home to relegation candidates Atlético Goianiense and with a vital Copa do Brasil semi-final against Ceará on Wednesday, it was expected that Oliveira would select a changed side and allow his big players extra rest before their cup match. However, Coritiba took to the field at the Couto Pereira with a full strength side, battled hard but lost 1-0 to their organised opponents.

What does this mean for Coritiba? Well, with a full strength side they failed to win at home against a side who are certain to be battling against the drop this year, and on Wednesday they will be playing Ceará who did decide to rest their main XI this weekend. If the Coxa make it through their semi-final safely then this result will be forgotten, but if they do not, Coritiba fans will surely point the finger at the manager.

GOLAÇO DA RODADA: Lucas (SÃO PAULO vs Fluminense)



The first golaço da rodada award of the season goes to Lucas of São Paulo for his magnificent solo effort against Fluminense. The hotly tipped young attacker picked the ball up just inside the Fluminense half, played a quick one-two with Carlinhos Paraiba and then set off on a wonderful dribble, showing off his superb acceleration and leaving the Fluminense defenders floundering, before cutting inside away from Gum and finishing coolly past goalkeeper Ricardo Berna. A truly excellent goal from a young forward who is set to have a huge season this year.

So there we have it, the 2011 Brasileirão is fully underway, and already there is plenty to talk about. Will Flamengo stroll to the title with the good form of Ronaldinho Gaúcho? Did the experts get it wrong with Coritiba? Do Cruzeiro really have a team capable of winning the title this year? We can not possibly know the answers to these questions yet, but it's certainly going to be fun to find out!

This week we have the second legs of the Copa do Brasil semi-finals on Wednesday, as Coritiba play Ceará (first leg 0-0) and Avaí take on Vasco (first leg 1-1). Wednesday also brings us Santos' Copa Libertadores semi-final first leg against Paraguayans Cerro Porteño. The two sides were in the same group in the opening stage of the tournament, drawing 1x1 in Paraguay and Santos coming out 2x1 winners in São Paulo.

At the weekend we also have another full card in the Brasileirão, the pick of the action coming on Sunday afternoon as Palmeiras travel to Sete Lagoas to play Cruzeiro.

ROUND 1 RESULTS:
Flamengo 4x0 Avaí
Atlético Mineiro 3x0 Atlético Paranaense
Ceará 1x3 Vasco
Santos 1x1 Internacional
Palmeiras 1x0 Botafogo
Coritiba 0x1 Atlético Goianiense
Figueirense 1x0 Cruzeiro
Grêmio 1x2 Corinthians
Fluminense 0x2 São Paulo
América Mineiro 2x1 Bahia

Brasileirão In Focus: Cruzeiro

One of the really serious contenders for the national title this season, Cruzeiro are looking for another successful season in their long, proud history. Runners-up in the Brasileirão last season, Campeonato Mineiro champions for 2011, they are widely regarded as the best team in South America.

Generally dominant so far in 2011, they strolled through the Campeonato Mineiro, dropping only four points in the regular stage and cruising through the knockout round. However, they suffered a surprise exit from the Copa Libertadores at the hands of Colombians Once Caldas, despite playing absolutely brilliantly in the group stage.

Since last year they have made some useful tweaks to the squad, some fringe players have been cut, youngsters have been sent out on loan, and useful additions have been recruited in the shape of defensive midfielder Leandro Guerreiro, Paraguayan forward José Ortigoza and Uruguayan centre back Mauricio Victorino.

They have some wonderful talents in their squad, goalkeeper Fábio is another awesome Brazilian talent in that position, great shot-stopper, and wonderful at facing penalties. In the midfield, Argentine playmaker Walter Montillo orchestrates the attack and shows week-in-week-out why he is one of the best midfielders in the league. He is such a fabulous player to watch, he dictates the tempo of the match, creates chances with wonderful through passes, and can carve open opportunities for himself with fantastic darting runs through the opposition defence.

Another huge talent in the squad is 21 year old attacker Wallyson. He has really made the step up this year with dazzling performances in the Libertadores and state championships, after he was restricted to playing a peripheral role in the team last season. Traditionally a supporting striker, he has adapted to playing as a right winger and has fitted in perfectly to the attack. One to watch for this season, and a possible candidate for top scorer if Cruzeiro performs as expected.

Wallyson is looking forward to his best season yet. (Photo: Valeska Silva)

Similar to the likes of Barcelona, they are a rather predictable side. Manager Cuca never makes too many alterations to their formation or squad selection, which has helped them form a unit of players who are able to build consistency every week. Their system is a 4-2-3-1, the aforementioned Wallyson and Roger in attacking midfield roles with the former drifting out right, and Montillo as the playmaker. Thiago Ribeiro should be preferred up front coming back from injury, but they have some other useful options for that spot like José Ortigoza and former l’OM striker Brandão.

They really have a very good chance for the title this season, as long as the team stay motivated and do not lose confidence. Alongside their strong starting XI, they have decent depth in their squad which is absolutely integral to a title challenge in the Campeonato Brasileiro. Their Libertadores exit is a worry, but over the course of a league season they should perform very well.

Expected formation:

Copa Libertadores Preview: Group Round-up

The group stage of the 2011 Copa Libertadores is coming to a close. Six teams have already booked their place in the next round, but there is plenty of action still to come, with ten more spots to play for in the next round.

We've got eight groups in total, so let's get right to it. Also I've included a little list of links below for you to navigate easier through the groups.

Group 1/Group 2/Group 3/Group 4/Group 5/Group 6/Group 7/Group 8

Group 1

Group 1 was always going to fall under the radar a bit in this year’s Libertadores, being the only group not containing any teams from the two huge CONMEBOL associations, Brazil and Argentina. As it stands, with one match left, Libertad of Paraguay are way out in front (more or less as expected), but the race for second place is still extremely tight.

Currently occupying the second qualifying spot with six points is Universidad San Martín of Peru. A tiny side formed by the local university and with a fanbase largely made up of a handful of dentistry students, San Martín will surely be the biggest shock if they manage to progress to the knockout rounds.

Their rivals for second place have been pretty disappointing in their performances so far, San Luis of Mexico and Once Caldas of Colombia (the 2004 Libertadores champions). But there is only two points separating the three clubs, so either side could realistically end up in the knockout stage.

The final round of games in Group 1 takes place on Tuesday 19th April, with Libertad hosting San Luis, and Once Caldas travelling to Lima to play Universidad San Martín. Each team’s situation is as follows, Libertad are five points clear in first place, and they know that win, lose or draw vs San Luis, they are guaranteed to be through as group winners. This, and the fact that they have a very important league match against Cerro Porteño on the weekend after the San Luis game, means they will probably take it easy against San Luis, possibly resting some first team players.

The team currently in second place, Universidad San Martín, have plenty of reasons to fancy themselves as favourites to progress. They know that one more win at home will guarantee their qualification, and even a draw would put them through if San Luis fail to beat Libertad. However their form has been rather poor, after a miraculous start winning their first two games, they have since fallen to three defeats, conceding 9 goals in the process.

San Martín striker Alemanno celebrates scoring against Once Caldas (Photo: EFE)

The other two sides San Luis and Once Caldas have similar chances to progress, the Mexicans know that the only way they can qualify is if they defeat Libertad and Universidad San Martín fail to beat Once Caldas. This is no impossible task, considering that Libertad are in no need to win their match and that San Martín have been in dreadful form, therefore it would be fair to say that San Luis are favourites to go through. Once Caldas know they need to defeat Universidad San Martín and count on San Luis to fail to beat Libertad. Again, this isn’t impossible, so really it is anyone’s guess at this stage as to who will qualify in second place.

Predictions: Libertad 2x1 San Luis, Univ.San Martín 0x1 Once Caldas
(with these results, Libertad and Once Caldas would advance)


Group 2

We can go through Group 2 rather quickly, as our two qualifiers have already been determined; Junior Barranquilla of Colombia and Grêmio of Brazil. There was never really much doubt in this group, as there exists a huge divide in quality between the top two and bottom two sides. Grêmio of course are a side with quality, they are bicampeões of the Libertadores (they’ve won it twice), and they were certainly the most impressive side in the second half of last season’s Brasileirão. Junior Barranquilla, although not to the same level as Grêmio, are a side with a proud history, and with great quality, with some veteran South American legends like Jhon Viafara and Giovanni Hernandez. The other two, León de Huánuco from Peru and Bolivians Oriente Petrolero, have played the role of whipping boys.

There is one round of games remaining in group 2, but both are of little importance, with Junior and Grêmio comfortably qualified. On Thursday, Junior host León at their lovely Metropolitano stadium in Barranquilla, and Oriente Petrolero play Grêmio in Santa Cruz. If Junior avoid defeat in the match against León, they will qualify as group winners.

Predictions: Junior 2x0 León de Huánuco, Oriente Petrolero 1x3 Grêmio


Group 3

Right from the start, this group was tipped as one of the best in this year’s tournament, and it is certainly living up to the expectation, with the qualification race going right down to the wire. With only one match to go for each team, the group is delicately poised with only four points separating 1st and 4th place. Club América of Mexico are in first position with nine points, Argentinos Juniors and Nacional of Uruguay are both in second with seven points each, and Brazilian champions Fluminense are bottom with five points. The final games will both be on the 20th April, as Nacional play América in the famous Centenário stadium, and its Argentina versus Brazil as Argentinos Juniors play Fluminense.

There are several possible outcomes in this group, with all four teams in with a shout of qualifying, and only Fluminense are unable to finish in first place. The favourites to qualify are Club América of Mexico, they currently top the group and will qualify with a win, a draw, and they can even afford to lose their final game providing Argentinos fail to beat Fluminense. Despite this commanding position, Club América haven’t been particularly impressive so far in this year’s tournament, and their success is possibly more down to their opponents slipping up than América themselves playing well.

It is suggested that their huge home advantage is also playing a part in their success, the Azteca in Mexico City is a terribly long journey for all of their three opponents, and the stadium itself has a significant altitude difference to that of the other three’s home grounds. The evidence is there for all to see; Club América won all three of their home games at the Azteca, and lost in both encounters on the road. Personally, I doubt Club América’s chances of winning their match in Montevideo, and their qualification may end up depending entirely on the other result.

The next best chance of qualification lies with América’s opponents Nacional. Los Albos qualify with a home win in their last game, a draw also sees them through providing Fluminense beat Argentinos by two goals or less. It’s not a particularly easy situation for Nacional, but at the world famous Centenário in Montevideo, Nacional have what it takes to beat anyone, especially a Club América side with poor away form and who will have travelled 7,100km to get to the game.

Argentinos Juniors are currently in second position, but they still have a lot of work to do if they want to advance to the next round. They face Fluminense at home in what will be a very hard game, and they know that they need to win or draw (only if América manage to beat Nacional) to qualify for the knockout phase. Considering the unlikelihood of an América win in the other match, Argentinos will be going in to their final game looking for a win, and even though it is against the team in 4th place, Fluminense are certainly no pushovers.

Fluminense, 2010 Brasileirão champions, were tipped to go far in this year’s tournament, but two points out of their first three games put them in huge trouble. Despite a spirited 3-2 win at home against Club América, Fluminense’s coach Muricy Ramalho left the club, and Flu suffered their second defeat of the campaign against Nacional. That result left them in 4th spot and with only five points from five games, hardly the form of Brazilian champions. The dream is not over though, and Fluminense still hold on to an outside chance and will qualify if they defeat Argentinos Juniors and América manage to win in Uruguay. Neither of these prerequisites for qualification are straightforward, Flu will do very well to win in Buenos Aires, and as we mentioned, América winning in Montevideo is a pretty big ask.

Fluminense's Souza during their defeat against Nacional (Photo: Reuters)

To illustrate the severity of the situation, famous Brazilian sports statistician Tristão Garcia (who always pops up around this time and near the end of the league season) gave Fluminense a calculated 8% chance of qualification, as opposed to the 67, 66 and 59% he gave to América, Nacional and Argentinos respectively. While speaking to TV Globo, Tristão went even further and claimed that Fluminense qualifying would be like “a ray of lightning striking in the same spot three times”. Perhaps a bit of an overreaction, but it is undeniable that Flu are up against it.

Predictions: Nacional 2x0 Club América, Argentinos Juniors 3x2 Fluminense
(with these results, Argentinos and Nacional would qualify)


Group 4

With one game to go, a glance at the Group 4 standings would give any South American fan quite a surprise. Before the start of the tournament, this group gave the impression of being rather predictable, with Vélez Sársfield and their wealth of attackers being tipped to walk away with top spot. The two Chilean sides, Universidad Católica and Unión Española were expected to battle it out against each other for second place, and Caracas FC from the Venezuelan capital weren’t given a chance.

Now that all the teams have played five games, the group is looking rather different. Vélez have struggled to impress, epitomized by throwing away a 3-1 lead to lose at home against Universidad Católica, and they currently sit in third spot. The two Chilean sides played out an exciting match against one another in the first week, but neither side have really got going, Universidad Católica in second with eight points, and Unión Española already eliminated.

With nine points, the unfancied Caracas FC side leads the group. When they lost their first game 3-0 against Vélez, they were perhaps unlucky to concede three goals, but they offered little in attack. Since then, they won home and away against Unión, and recorded an excellent 3-1 win in Santiago against Universidad Católica, where they managed to score three times in under three minutes. Even if Caracas still fails to qualify, they can be very proud of their campaign.

As I have mentioned, only three of the four sides still have a chance of qualifying, but these final fixtures are sure to bring plenty of excitement. Both games take place on April 14th, with Caracas hosting Vélez Sársfield and the two Chilean sides facing off against eachother, this time at the Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, the home ground of Universidad Católica.

Caracas players celebrate their win against UC (Photo: Reuters)

To preview each side’s requirements for qualification, let’s start with the leaders Caracas FC. Caracas have a very tricky game against Vélez, they lost the away leg of this fixture 3-0, but they know that they just need one point to guarantee qualification. Furthermore, if Universidad Católica lose in the other match, Caracas will qualify automatically regardless of their result with Vélez.

Universidad Católica are in a fairly decent position to qualify, because thanks to their superior goal difference over Caracas, they also only require one point to guarantee qualification. Similar to Caracas, they also have an ‘emergency safety net’, as if Vélez lose their match in Venezuela, UC will qualify even if they lose to Unión.

In third place but still with a chance to win the entire group, Vélez will be looking to make up for their average performance in this year’s Libertadores by sealing their place in the knockout round. Just like the other two sides in the running, they know that a win in their last game guarantees their qualification, and if UC lose their match, Vélez can progress with a draw.

The neutral fans will surely love to see Caracas qualifying for the next round, but one can’t help thinking that if Vélez play to their potential, they will easily brush aside the current group leaders. In the other match, I’d be surprised if UC failed to win against Unión, they are a superior side and Unión will probably be focusing on improving their domestic form now that they are out of the Libertadores.

Predictions: Caracas 1x1 Vélez Sársfield, Universidad Católica 2x0 Unión Española
(with these results, Universidad Católica and Caracas would qualify)


Group 5

Unlike the other seven groups, we have a little bit longer to go in Group 5, as all four sides have two games remaining as opposed to just one. However judging by the excitement and drama we’ve seen so far, the more games the better. In a group with the early tournament favourites Santos, two huge South American sides in Cerro Porteño and Colo Colo, and the tricky Venezuelans Deportivo Táchira, we knew it wasn’t going to be dull, and it certainly hasn’t been.

Santos’ underachieving has come as a surprise, with a squad that can boast the likes of Neymar, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Elano, Zé Eduardo and Maikon Leite going forward, they were expected to run away with this group, scoring hatfuls of goals in the process. The reality was very different, they started with a frustrating 0-0 away to Táchira, and it appeared the team began to panic and become preoccupied with the prospect of failure. They then went their first three games without a win, firing their manager in the process.

Last week Santos finally managed to get their first win of the group, a 3-2 victory at home to Colo Colo, but they still managed to do it the hard way. Things were looking rosy for the Peixe as Neymar jinked through the Chilean defence to make it 3-0, but after picking up a comical second yellow card for his celebration, the rest of the Santos team embarked on a path of self-destruction, having Elano and Zé Eduardo sent off and all three suspended for their crucial match next week.

Santos striker Neymar (far right) recieves his red card against Colo Colo (Photo: AFP)

Santos play away from home against Cerro Porteño on April 14th, and they know that they will be eliminated if they lose and Colo Colo subsequently beat Deportivo Táchira at home. With Neymar, Elano and Zé Eduardo suspended, they will have a tough time overcoming a side like Cerro, who can call upon exciting midfielder Juan Manuel Iturbe, and the seemingly unstoppable centre-forward Roberto Nanni. Cerro, currently in first position in the group, will seal their qualification with a win against Santos, and they look very good value to progress.

In the other match this week, Colo Colo will take a huge step toward qualification if they can see off Deportivo Táchira at home. Colo Colo have so far been a team dangerous in attack, but with many gaps in defence, in four games they have managed to score eleven goals, but they are still with a -1 goal difference, conceding a woeful twelve goals in only four games. Colo Colo should be confident in this game though, they won this fixture 4-2 away in Venezuela on matchday two, and they will expect another three points playing at home.

Predictions: Colo Colo 2x1 Deportivo Táchira, Cerro Porteño 1x1 Santos
Santos 3x0 Deportivo Táchira, Colo Colo 0x2 Cerro Porteño
(with these results, Cerro Porteño and Santos will qualify)


Group 6

In Group 6 we have another thrilling last day lined up. Jorge Wilstermann of Bolivia are very far back with only one point, but the top three, Internacional, Jaguares and Emelec, are separated by only two points. The final matches will take place on Tuesday 19th, as Jorge Wilstermann take on Jaguares, and Emelec travel to the south of Brazil to face Internacional at their formidable Beira Rio stadium.

Ecuadorian side Emelec are currently sitting in third position, but missed a huge chance to be sitting on top of the group when they were held 0-0 by Jorge Wilstermann last week. To put this result into context, Jorge Wilstermann lost all their first four matches, and they currently play their football in the Bolivian second division. It’s not going to be too easy for them to qualify; they need to beat Internacional away from home, but could also qualify with a draw if Jaguares suffer a surprise defeat against Jorge Wilstermann.

Internacional, the reigning Libertadores champions, haven’t really convinced anyone yet in this tournament, despite their ten points and +9 goal difference. Most of the unrest has come from their own support, and on Friday the board decided to sack their coach Celso Roth, the man who won the tournament with them last year.

Roth’s relationship with the Inter fans has been quite frosty ever since their disappointing World Club Cup performance, losing to African side TP Mazembe. Paulo Roberto Falcão, Internacional and AS Roma legend, will take over on Monday, and the board will be hoping that the appointment of such a fan’s favourite will keep the support happy and get the team through to the next round. Inter go in to their last game at home just needing to avoid defeat, and I’d be very surprised if they didn’t manage it.

The other side who are in the running for qualification are the Mexicans Jaguares de Chiapas. A fairly unimpressive yet efficient campaign so far, Jaguares are left with a final game against Jorge Wilstermann and will be highly favoured to win. Jaguares qualify with a win, a draw if Emelec fail to win, and even a loss if Emelec lose to Internacional.

Predictions: Internacional 3x0 Emelec, Jorge Wilstermann 0x2 Jaguares
(with these results, Internacional and Jaguares will qualify)


Group 7

Similar to group two, both of our qualifiers have already been decided, as the irresistible Cruzeiro and Argentinian giants Estudiantes progress to the next phase. The final game is on the 16th, as Guaraní play Deportes Tolima, and the two qualified sides clash in Buenos Aires. You may think that Estudiantes will go into the last game hoping to win the group, but thanks to Cruzeiro’s unbelievable +16 goal difference, Estudiantes would have to win that match by eight goals.

Cruzeiro have undoubtedly been the top performers in the Libertadores this season, their home results were fantastic, a 5-0 win over Estudiantes, 4-0 over Guaraní, and then 6-1 against Deportes Tolima. The Raposa really do have a good chance of going all the way in this year’s tournament, as one can’t really see many teams capable of beating them on current form.

Predictions: Guaraní 1x2 Deportes Tolima, Estudiantes 2x2 Cruzeiro


Group 8

Finally, we come to Group 8, and going in to the last match, one side have already qualified, and the other three are fighting for second place. This was really the perfect group for Libertadores fans, we have the historical greats Peñarol and Independiente, Libertadores stalwarts LDU Quito, and Godoy Cruz, the first team from Mendoza to ever qualify for the Copa Libertadores.

The second qualifier will be determined on Tuesday night, as Peñarol host Independiente, and Godoy Cruz travel to Quito to play LDU.

Peñarol celebrate their qualification to the knockout stages.

Peñarol qualified after beating Godoy Cruz in their last match, and surprisingly they sit in first position despite suffering two heavy defeats away from home, 3-0 versus Independiente and 5-0 against LDU Quito.

LDU play home to Godoy Cruz on Tuesday in Quito, where they famously hold a significant altitude advantage over the majority of their opponents. They only have to avoid defeat, which is something their experienced Libertadores squad should be able to deal with, against Libertadores first-timers Godoy Cruz.

It has been a decent campaign for Godoy Cruz, flying the flag for the Mendoza region of Argentina, being the first team from there to qualify for the Libertadores proper. They have earned seven points so far, with wins at home to LDU and away to fellow Argentines Independiente. La Tomba now have the ultimate Libertadores test if they want to qualify, they have to win in the famous Estadio Casa Blanca.

Independiente, only two points back from the other two, do still have a chance to qualify, but that chance is pretty tiny. El Rojo need LDU and Godoy Cruz to draw, and at the same time they have to defeat Peñarol by eight goals.

Predictions: Peñarol 2x1 Independiente, LDU Quito 3x0 Godoy Cruz
(with these results, Peñarol and LDU will qualify)


The ties for the Copa Libertadores knockout rounds are decided by group form, not by a draw, so these final results will have a big impact on who faces who in the next round. With the predictions I gave, the knockout ties would be as follows:

Junior Barranquilla x Once Caldas
Cruzeiro x Santos
Libertad x Caracas
Internacional x Nacional
Cerro Porteño x LDU Quito
Peñarol x Estudiantes
Universidad Católica x Jaguares
Argentinos Juniors x Gremio

I think you’d agree that those scores throw up some interesting ties, but with several teams very close in terms of their performance, there are so many possibilities. A couple of really interesting ones which could realistically come up, first of all Internacional x Grêmio is a real possibility, two fierce rivals, and would make an amazing Libertadores tie. Possibly the most exciting though is the prospect of Peñarol x Nacional. One of the biggest rivalries in South American football, often regarded as one of the biggest rivalries in the world, it’s a very distinct possibility if you consider the records of the two sides.