Campeonato Brasileiro 2011 preview: Round 15 (part two)

Continuing on with the preview of this weekend's Brasileirão, let's turn our attention to Sunday's afternoon matches.

Santos x Ceará (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Pacaembu)

Both Santos and Ceará have been struggling of late, so a win for either side would be vital. Ceará are coming into this game off the back of an extremely disappointing defeat at home to Avaí, where they were completely outplayed and beaten 3x0. Santos, the 2011 Copa Libertadores champions, are also in a poor phase, losing their last three matches and gaining heavy criticism from their supporters.

Against Ceará, Santos should not really have many problems and will more than likely win comfortably. They will be without wonderkid Neymar, who is suspended, but they will still be able to field a strong lineup capable of seeing off the Vozão.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS 

Internacional x Cruzeiro (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Beira-Rio)

Internacional and Cruzeiro face off against one another in Porto Alegre in what could certainly turn out to be the game of the round. Both teams have slumped a little over the past month, but they possess strong squads and we should see in exciting yet even match. Inter and Cruzeiro are both poised to go on a good run of form, and a win in this match could be perfect to kick that off.

Inter remain with several selection issues, Guiñazu, Zé Roberto, Bolatti and Gilberto are all injured, Oscar and Juan are away with the Brazilian U-20 squad, and Kleber and Wilson Matias are suspended. Coach Osmar Loss has been using a 4-5-1 formation recently, but with so many injuries in the midfield, it is expected that he will have to change his shape. 

Cruzeiro aren't without their own problems either, Thiago Ribeiro and Roger remain on the sidelines injured, but coach Joel Santana can still count on Montillo and Wallyson going forward. This will be an intriguing match, where we should see some goals and excitement. In my opinion, Cruzeiro will come through as narrow winners, but in truth this game could go either way.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

Atlético-PR x Corinthians (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Arena da Baixada)

Leaders Corinthians continue on their run of favourable fixtures, in the past week they have faced 17th placed Avaí, 20th placed América and now they take on Atlético Paranaense in 19th place. This game could be dangerous though, as o Furacão have hit some decent form of late and look tough to beat at home in Curitiba. 

Corinthians have had their leader credentials well tested over the past few weeks, and some cracks are beginning to appear. Their defence does not look as assured as it was earlier in the season, and some particularly poor performances from young goalkeeper Renan has now made coach Tite axe him in favour of their terribly inexperienced third goalkeeper Danilo Fernandes. With their opponents visibly rattled by recent results, Atlético will be going all out for the upset.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

América-MG x Fluminense (Sunday 7th - 16h00 Arena do Jacaré)

InternaciIn the last of Sunday's afternoon matches América Mineiro host last year's champions Fluminense in Sete Lagoas. América, currently in 20th position in the league standings, have been in some real trouble of late and team morale appears to be at an all-time low. Fan's favourite Givanildo has came in as their new manager to try and steady the ship, but they will find it extremely hard against this Fluminense side.

Fluminense coach Abel Braga looks to have finally settled into the job and Fluminense are on their best run of form of this season so far. This week the club has been rocked with speculation surrounding the possible exit of national team striker Fred, with the 27 year old claiming he has recieved death threats from certain sections of the Fluminense support. They will continue without him this weekend, with Rafael Moura and Rafael Sobis playing up front. 

In Brasil, scandals like this often seem to affect on-field performance, but Fluminense are looking too good at this moment and should win this match comfortably.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

There you have it, Sunday's afternoon games all previewed. The final part of the preview is coming soon, a look at the three matches on Sunday evening, which includes an interesting clássico.

Campeonato Brasileiro 2011 preview: Round 14 (part one)

We are rapidly approaching the half-way point already in this year's Brasileirão and the league table is really starting to take shape. Round 14 is another midweek round and we have all twenty teams in action in some potentially fantastic match-ups.

Corinthians x América-MG (Wednesday 3rd - 19h30 Pacaembu)

League leaders Corinthians kick-off Round 14 with a home game against bottom-side América. Playing at home in São Paulo, Corinthians will be widely expected to dispatch of o Coelho rather easily and pick up another three points, but things may not be that simple. On Sunday, Corinthians suffered their first loss away from home this season against 19th placed Avaí and that has definitely left an air of doubt and uncertainty around the Timão squad.

On the other hand, América are going through some tough times of their own. With one win from thirteen games and a goal difference of -14, this is a side that has really struggled since their promotion this year. Fan's favourite Givanildo Oliveira has taken over as manager to try and steady the ship, but he will only be watching from the stands on Wednesday night. With the return of Corinthians captain Chicão, and the obvious gap in quality between the two sides, I would expect nothing less than a convincing win for the home side in this one.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS 

Grêmio x Atlético-MG (Wednesday 3rd - 19h30 Estádio Olímpico)

Over in Porto Alegre, we have a battle between two underachievers as Grêmio host Atlético-MG. Both of these sides are traditionally big clubs in Brasil, but at this stage of the championship they both find themselves hovering precociously above the relegation zone. Without a win in their last three games, Grêmio go in to this one absolutely desperate for points. Manager Julinho Camargo has only been in charge for a month and already he is under pressure. Grêmio will more than likely be without forward André Lima, who is suffering from a muscle strain, young Leandro should replace him.

Atlético have actually been making some progress over the past few weeks under new coach Dorival Junior, but they have been hurt by some very unfortunate defeats, particularly Saturday's 3x2 loss to Palmeiras. O Galo have Dudu Cearense and Toró back from suspensions, and it is expected that ex-Santos and Dynamo Kiev striker André will get his first start for the club alongside Magno Alves. This is certainly going to be a close match, with goals from both sides expected. It is very hard to pick a winner here, but if I was a betting man my money would be on a score draw.

EXPECTED FORMATIONS

Copa América review: BRAZIL

Now on to the five-time world champions, winners of eight... Ah forget it, they need no introduction. Let's talk about BRAZIL.

After a poor showing at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, big changes had to be made to the Seleção with the next World Cup taking place on home soil in 2014. The CBF (the Brazilian football association) moved swiftly, sacking Dunga and bringing in ex-Corinthians and Grêmio boss Mano Menezes. The transformations brought about by Menezes have been well documented and I myself talked about this at length in a previous article over at BornOffside.net (shameless self-promotion, I know!).

Even with the public more focussed on preparing for 2014, anything other than victory still means disappointment in Brazil. This time, the Seleção were eliminated at the hands of Paraguay in the quarter finals after topping Group B. Things started slowly with two draws in their opening two matches, but they secured a vital 4x2 win over Ecuador in their final group game. In the quarter final, Brazil played well and were certainly the better team, but they failed to score and were beaten on penalties.

Mano Menezes' tactics (as touched on in my previous article) were to set up in a 4-2-1-3 formation and attempt to be more creative without relying on counter-attacks. The central midfield duo changed from Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo to the much more athletic Premier League partnership of Lucas Leiva and Ramires. Santos' highly rated midfielder Paulo Henrique Ganso sits in the playmaking role behind the three forwards. Menezes tinkered with the shape a little, especially during the group match with Paraguay, but the strategy was generally the same.

Against Venezuela in La Plata, Brazil made a superb start and they were in control for the majority of the match. However, Venezuela's defensive midfield pairing of Rincón and Lucena grew into the tie and marked Ganso very well, forcing Brazil to alter their focus. Ganso's position was far too high for his role, meaning that Brazil struggled to link up their midfield and attack, the only direct link they had was the forward runs of Ramires. However that brought about its own dangers, as whenever Ramiers burst forward his midfield partner Lucas Leiva was left totally exposed to the counter attack.

Formations for Brazil x Venezuela [Note Ganso (10) playing very high, leaving the Brazil shape disjointed]

In the second half Menezes brought on Fred, Lucas and Elano to try and change the match, but the ended up relying on set-pieces and long balls and the match finished 0x0.

Against Paraguay, Menezes altered the formation a little, bringing in Shakhtar Donetsk's Jadson (whom Menezes trained in Internacional's youth team) for Robinho. This switch nudged the shape of the forward quartet a bit, resulting in something close to a slanted 4-2-2-2, the same formation used by Dunga at the 2010 World Cup. Jadson seemed like a good addition and he formed an impressive partnership with Ganso, the two combining well for Jadson to score the opening goal. Oddly enough, after a great first half performance Jadson was substituted at the half time break.

Menezes' standed 4-2-2-2

Going into the second half, it became plain to see that Brazil's defence were having an off day and Paraguay really started to take an advantage. Daniel Alves was particularly poor, exuberant winger Estigarribia gave him the run-around for the entire match. Paraguay scored twice and it looked like Brazil would be defeated until substitute Fred scored a last minute equaliser.

In the all-important final group match against Ecuador, Menezes went back to the 4-2-1-3 by reinstating Robinho at the expense of Jadson. Maicon also started ahead of Daniel Alves at right back after the latter's shocking performance in the previous match. The game was very open, with Brazil's attack playing well and looking like an improved version of the Venezuela match. Ganso played in a much smarter position closer to the midfield and Brazil managed to create chances and put four goals past Ecuador. At the other end of the field though, the centre back pairing and goalkeeper Júlio César looked very suspect. Júlio made some glaring errors and Ecuador managed to hit the back of the net twice as the game finished 4x2.

That three points meant that Brazil ended up winning Group B and progressed to the quarter finals to play the second best third-placed side, which happened to be a rematch with group rivals Paraguay. For that clash, Mano Menezes maintained the same side that defeated Ecuador and Brazil probably played their best football of the tournament, creating well and controlling the match.

The only problem was that they could not seem to score the opening goal and thanks to some heroic saves from Justo Villar in the Paraguay goal, the match stayed goalless throughout the ninety minutes and subsequent extra time. So, the decision went to a penalty shoot-out and everyone looked on open-mouthed as Brazil missed all four of their spot-kicks and were eliminated.

As I mentioned at the start of the article, anything less than victory spells great disappointment when it comes to the Brazilian national team, but it was hard to find many reasons to blame the squad for this particular exit. Granted the execution of the penalty kicks was an aberration, but throughout the match Brazil were the better team and played some really attractive football.

Something that was picked up on by the media outside of Brazil was the percieved failure of the Seleção's two big rising stars Ganso and Neymar. The Santos duo were hyped-up greatly before the tournament, but both only managed to display brief flashes of the quality that they do possess. Although something that has to be kept in mind when talking about their performances is that their inclusion in this tournament was purely about integrating the two into the national side, giving them tournament experience that will be invaluable when that all-important 2014 World Cup comes around.

Another promise for the future, Lucas Moura of São Paulo, was brought into the side and I am not completely sure thats this tournament turned out to be a particularly positive experience for him. Personally, I share the somewhat unpopular view that he should not have been in the squad for this tournament, instead he would have been better suited going to the U-20 World Cup in Colombia next month. There, Lucas would have been the main man in attack and the experience of leading that team would have been considerably more useful for him as opposed to some frustrating minutes off the bench for the senior side.

But it is back to business as usual for Mano Menezes and this Brazil side. As I write, the squad for Brazil's upcoming friendly against Germany has just been announced with six of the Copa América squad cut, and Brazilian eyes are all firmly fixed on the big party in 2014.

Copa Libertadores Preview: Group Round-up

The group stage of the 2011 Copa Libertadores is coming to a close. Six teams have already booked their place in the next round, but there is plenty of action still to come, with ten more spots to play for in the next round.

We've got eight groups in total, so let's get right to it. Also I've included a little list of links below for you to navigate easier through the groups.

Group 1/Group 2/Group 3/Group 4/Group 5/Group 6/Group 7/Group 8

Group 1

Group 1 was always going to fall under the radar a bit in this year’s Libertadores, being the only group not containing any teams from the two huge CONMEBOL associations, Brazil and Argentina. As it stands, with one match left, Libertad of Paraguay are way out in front (more or less as expected), but the race for second place is still extremely tight.

Currently occupying the second qualifying spot with six points is Universidad San Martín of Peru. A tiny side formed by the local university and with a fanbase largely made up of a handful of dentistry students, San Martín will surely be the biggest shock if they manage to progress to the knockout rounds.

Their rivals for second place have been pretty disappointing in their performances so far, San Luis of Mexico and Once Caldas of Colombia (the 2004 Libertadores champions). But there is only two points separating the three clubs, so either side could realistically end up in the knockout stage.

The final round of games in Group 1 takes place on Tuesday 19th April, with Libertad hosting San Luis, and Once Caldas travelling to Lima to play Universidad San Martín. Each team’s situation is as follows, Libertad are five points clear in first place, and they know that win, lose or draw vs San Luis, they are guaranteed to be through as group winners. This, and the fact that they have a very important league match against Cerro Porteño on the weekend after the San Luis game, means they will probably take it easy against San Luis, possibly resting some first team players.

The team currently in second place, Universidad San Martín, have plenty of reasons to fancy themselves as favourites to progress. They know that one more win at home will guarantee their qualification, and even a draw would put them through if San Luis fail to beat Libertad. However their form has been rather poor, after a miraculous start winning their first two games, they have since fallen to three defeats, conceding 9 goals in the process.

San Martín striker Alemanno celebrates scoring against Once Caldas (Photo: EFE)

The other two sides San Luis and Once Caldas have similar chances to progress, the Mexicans know that the only way they can qualify is if they defeat Libertad and Universidad San Martín fail to beat Once Caldas. This is no impossible task, considering that Libertad are in no need to win their match and that San Martín have been in dreadful form, therefore it would be fair to say that San Luis are favourites to go through. Once Caldas know they need to defeat Universidad San Martín and count on San Luis to fail to beat Libertad. Again, this isn’t impossible, so really it is anyone’s guess at this stage as to who will qualify in second place.

Predictions: Libertad 2x1 San Luis, Univ.San Martín 0x1 Once Caldas
(with these results, Libertad and Once Caldas would advance)


Group 2

We can go through Group 2 rather quickly, as our two qualifiers have already been determined; Junior Barranquilla of Colombia and Grêmio of Brazil. There was never really much doubt in this group, as there exists a huge divide in quality between the top two and bottom two sides. Grêmio of course are a side with quality, they are bicampeões of the Libertadores (they’ve won it twice), and they were certainly the most impressive side in the second half of last season’s Brasileirão. Junior Barranquilla, although not to the same level as Grêmio, are a side with a proud history, and with great quality, with some veteran South American legends like Jhon Viafara and Giovanni Hernandez. The other two, León de Huánuco from Peru and Bolivians Oriente Petrolero, have played the role of whipping boys.

There is one round of games remaining in group 2, but both are of little importance, with Junior and Grêmio comfortably qualified. On Thursday, Junior host León at their lovely Metropolitano stadium in Barranquilla, and Oriente Petrolero play Grêmio in Santa Cruz. If Junior avoid defeat in the match against León, they will qualify as group winners.

Predictions: Junior 2x0 León de Huánuco, Oriente Petrolero 1x3 Grêmio


Group 3

Right from the start, this group was tipped as one of the best in this year’s tournament, and it is certainly living up to the expectation, with the qualification race going right down to the wire. With only one match to go for each team, the group is delicately poised with only four points separating 1st and 4th place. Club América of Mexico are in first position with nine points, Argentinos Juniors and Nacional of Uruguay are both in second with seven points each, and Brazilian champions Fluminense are bottom with five points. The final games will both be on the 20th April, as Nacional play América in the famous Centenário stadium, and its Argentina versus Brazil as Argentinos Juniors play Fluminense.

There are several possible outcomes in this group, with all four teams in with a shout of qualifying, and only Fluminense are unable to finish in first place. The favourites to qualify are Club América of Mexico, they currently top the group and will qualify with a win, a draw, and they can even afford to lose their final game providing Argentinos fail to beat Fluminense. Despite this commanding position, Club América haven’t been particularly impressive so far in this year’s tournament, and their success is possibly more down to their opponents slipping up than América themselves playing well.

It is suggested that their huge home advantage is also playing a part in their success, the Azteca in Mexico City is a terribly long journey for all of their three opponents, and the stadium itself has a significant altitude difference to that of the other three’s home grounds. The evidence is there for all to see; Club América won all three of their home games at the Azteca, and lost in both encounters on the road. Personally, I doubt Club América’s chances of winning their match in Montevideo, and their qualification may end up depending entirely on the other result.

The next best chance of qualification lies with América’s opponents Nacional. Los Albos qualify with a home win in their last game, a draw also sees them through providing Fluminense beat Argentinos by two goals or less. It’s not a particularly easy situation for Nacional, but at the world famous Centenário in Montevideo, Nacional have what it takes to beat anyone, especially a Club América side with poor away form and who will have travelled 7,100km to get to the game.

Argentinos Juniors are currently in second position, but they still have a lot of work to do if they want to advance to the next round. They face Fluminense at home in what will be a very hard game, and they know that they need to win or draw (only if América manage to beat Nacional) to qualify for the knockout phase. Considering the unlikelihood of an América win in the other match, Argentinos will be going in to their final game looking for a win, and even though it is against the team in 4th place, Fluminense are certainly no pushovers.

Fluminense, 2010 Brasileirão champions, were tipped to go far in this year’s tournament, but two points out of their first three games put them in huge trouble. Despite a spirited 3-2 win at home against Club América, Fluminense’s coach Muricy Ramalho left the club, and Flu suffered their second defeat of the campaign against Nacional. That result left them in 4th spot and with only five points from five games, hardly the form of Brazilian champions. The dream is not over though, and Fluminense still hold on to an outside chance and will qualify if they defeat Argentinos Juniors and América manage to win in Uruguay. Neither of these prerequisites for qualification are straightforward, Flu will do very well to win in Buenos Aires, and as we mentioned, América winning in Montevideo is a pretty big ask.

Fluminense's Souza during their defeat against Nacional (Photo: Reuters)

To illustrate the severity of the situation, famous Brazilian sports statistician Tristão Garcia (who always pops up around this time and near the end of the league season) gave Fluminense a calculated 8% chance of qualification, as opposed to the 67, 66 and 59% he gave to América, Nacional and Argentinos respectively. While speaking to TV Globo, Tristão went even further and claimed that Fluminense qualifying would be like “a ray of lightning striking in the same spot three times”. Perhaps a bit of an overreaction, but it is undeniable that Flu are up against it.

Predictions: Nacional 2x0 Club América, Argentinos Juniors 3x2 Fluminense
(with these results, Argentinos and Nacional would qualify)


Group 4

With one game to go, a glance at the Group 4 standings would give any South American fan quite a surprise. Before the start of the tournament, this group gave the impression of being rather predictable, with Vélez Sársfield and their wealth of attackers being tipped to walk away with top spot. The two Chilean sides, Universidad Católica and Unión Española were expected to battle it out against each other for second place, and Caracas FC from the Venezuelan capital weren’t given a chance.

Now that all the teams have played five games, the group is looking rather different. Vélez have struggled to impress, epitomized by throwing away a 3-1 lead to lose at home against Universidad Católica, and they currently sit in third spot. The two Chilean sides played out an exciting match against one another in the first week, but neither side have really got going, Universidad Católica in second with eight points, and Unión Española already eliminated.

With nine points, the unfancied Caracas FC side leads the group. When they lost their first game 3-0 against Vélez, they were perhaps unlucky to concede three goals, but they offered little in attack. Since then, they won home and away against Unión, and recorded an excellent 3-1 win in Santiago against Universidad Católica, where they managed to score three times in under three minutes. Even if Caracas still fails to qualify, they can be very proud of their campaign.

As I have mentioned, only three of the four sides still have a chance of qualifying, but these final fixtures are sure to bring plenty of excitement. Both games take place on April 14th, with Caracas hosting Vélez Sársfield and the two Chilean sides facing off against eachother, this time at the Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, the home ground of Universidad Católica.

Caracas players celebrate their win against UC (Photo: Reuters)

To preview each side’s requirements for qualification, let’s start with the leaders Caracas FC. Caracas have a very tricky game against Vélez, they lost the away leg of this fixture 3-0, but they know that they just need one point to guarantee qualification. Furthermore, if Universidad Católica lose in the other match, Caracas will qualify automatically regardless of their result with Vélez.

Universidad Católica are in a fairly decent position to qualify, because thanks to their superior goal difference over Caracas, they also only require one point to guarantee qualification. Similar to Caracas, they also have an ‘emergency safety net’, as if Vélez lose their match in Venezuela, UC will qualify even if they lose to Unión.

In third place but still with a chance to win the entire group, Vélez will be looking to make up for their average performance in this year’s Libertadores by sealing their place in the knockout round. Just like the other two sides in the running, they know that a win in their last game guarantees their qualification, and if UC lose their match, Vélez can progress with a draw.

The neutral fans will surely love to see Caracas qualifying for the next round, but one can’t help thinking that if Vélez play to their potential, they will easily brush aside the current group leaders. In the other match, I’d be surprised if UC failed to win against Unión, they are a superior side and Unión will probably be focusing on improving their domestic form now that they are out of the Libertadores.

Predictions: Caracas 1x1 Vélez Sársfield, Universidad Católica 2x0 Unión Española
(with these results, Universidad Católica and Caracas would qualify)


Group 5

Unlike the other seven groups, we have a little bit longer to go in Group 5, as all four sides have two games remaining as opposed to just one. However judging by the excitement and drama we’ve seen so far, the more games the better. In a group with the early tournament favourites Santos, two huge South American sides in Cerro Porteño and Colo Colo, and the tricky Venezuelans Deportivo Táchira, we knew it wasn’t going to be dull, and it certainly hasn’t been.

Santos’ underachieving has come as a surprise, with a squad that can boast the likes of Neymar, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Elano, Zé Eduardo and Maikon Leite going forward, they were expected to run away with this group, scoring hatfuls of goals in the process. The reality was very different, they started with a frustrating 0-0 away to Táchira, and it appeared the team began to panic and become preoccupied with the prospect of failure. They then went their first three games without a win, firing their manager in the process.

Last week Santos finally managed to get their first win of the group, a 3-2 victory at home to Colo Colo, but they still managed to do it the hard way. Things were looking rosy for the Peixe as Neymar jinked through the Chilean defence to make it 3-0, but after picking up a comical second yellow card for his celebration, the rest of the Santos team embarked on a path of self-destruction, having Elano and Zé Eduardo sent off and all three suspended for their crucial match next week.

Santos striker Neymar (far right) recieves his red card against Colo Colo (Photo: AFP)

Santos play away from home against Cerro Porteño on April 14th, and they know that they will be eliminated if they lose and Colo Colo subsequently beat Deportivo Táchira at home. With Neymar, Elano and Zé Eduardo suspended, they will have a tough time overcoming a side like Cerro, who can call upon exciting midfielder Juan Manuel Iturbe, and the seemingly unstoppable centre-forward Roberto Nanni. Cerro, currently in first position in the group, will seal their qualification with a win against Santos, and they look very good value to progress.

In the other match this week, Colo Colo will take a huge step toward qualification if they can see off Deportivo Táchira at home. Colo Colo have so far been a team dangerous in attack, but with many gaps in defence, in four games they have managed to score eleven goals, but they are still with a -1 goal difference, conceding a woeful twelve goals in only four games. Colo Colo should be confident in this game though, they won this fixture 4-2 away in Venezuela on matchday two, and they will expect another three points playing at home.

Predictions: Colo Colo 2x1 Deportivo Táchira, Cerro Porteño 1x1 Santos
Santos 3x0 Deportivo Táchira, Colo Colo 0x2 Cerro Porteño
(with these results, Cerro Porteño and Santos will qualify)


Group 6

In Group 6 we have another thrilling last day lined up. Jorge Wilstermann of Bolivia are very far back with only one point, but the top three, Internacional, Jaguares and Emelec, are separated by only two points. The final matches will take place on Tuesday 19th, as Jorge Wilstermann take on Jaguares, and Emelec travel to the south of Brazil to face Internacional at their formidable Beira Rio stadium.

Ecuadorian side Emelec are currently sitting in third position, but missed a huge chance to be sitting on top of the group when they were held 0-0 by Jorge Wilstermann last week. To put this result into context, Jorge Wilstermann lost all their first four matches, and they currently play their football in the Bolivian second division. It’s not going to be too easy for them to qualify; they need to beat Internacional away from home, but could also qualify with a draw if Jaguares suffer a surprise defeat against Jorge Wilstermann.

Internacional, the reigning Libertadores champions, haven’t really convinced anyone yet in this tournament, despite their ten points and +9 goal difference. Most of the unrest has come from their own support, and on Friday the board decided to sack their coach Celso Roth, the man who won the tournament with them last year.

Roth’s relationship with the Inter fans has been quite frosty ever since their disappointing World Club Cup performance, losing to African side TP Mazembe. Paulo Roberto Falcão, Internacional and AS Roma legend, will take over on Monday, and the board will be hoping that the appointment of such a fan’s favourite will keep the support happy and get the team through to the next round. Inter go in to their last game at home just needing to avoid defeat, and I’d be very surprised if they didn’t manage it.

The other side who are in the running for qualification are the Mexicans Jaguares de Chiapas. A fairly unimpressive yet efficient campaign so far, Jaguares are left with a final game against Jorge Wilstermann and will be highly favoured to win. Jaguares qualify with a win, a draw if Emelec fail to win, and even a loss if Emelec lose to Internacional.

Predictions: Internacional 3x0 Emelec, Jorge Wilstermann 0x2 Jaguares
(with these results, Internacional and Jaguares will qualify)


Group 7

Similar to group two, both of our qualifiers have already been decided, as the irresistible Cruzeiro and Argentinian giants Estudiantes progress to the next phase. The final game is on the 16th, as Guaraní play Deportes Tolima, and the two qualified sides clash in Buenos Aires. You may think that Estudiantes will go into the last game hoping to win the group, but thanks to Cruzeiro’s unbelievable +16 goal difference, Estudiantes would have to win that match by eight goals.

Cruzeiro have undoubtedly been the top performers in the Libertadores this season, their home results were fantastic, a 5-0 win over Estudiantes, 4-0 over Guaraní, and then 6-1 against Deportes Tolima. The Raposa really do have a good chance of going all the way in this year’s tournament, as one can’t really see many teams capable of beating them on current form.

Predictions: Guaraní 1x2 Deportes Tolima, Estudiantes 2x2 Cruzeiro


Group 8

Finally, we come to Group 8, and going in to the last match, one side have already qualified, and the other three are fighting for second place. This was really the perfect group for Libertadores fans, we have the historical greats Peñarol and Independiente, Libertadores stalwarts LDU Quito, and Godoy Cruz, the first team from Mendoza to ever qualify for the Copa Libertadores.

The second qualifier will be determined on Tuesday night, as Peñarol host Independiente, and Godoy Cruz travel to Quito to play LDU.

Peñarol celebrate their qualification to the knockout stages.

Peñarol qualified after beating Godoy Cruz in their last match, and surprisingly they sit in first position despite suffering two heavy defeats away from home, 3-0 versus Independiente and 5-0 against LDU Quito.

LDU play home to Godoy Cruz on Tuesday in Quito, where they famously hold a significant altitude advantage over the majority of their opponents. They only have to avoid defeat, which is something their experienced Libertadores squad should be able to deal with, against Libertadores first-timers Godoy Cruz.

It has been a decent campaign for Godoy Cruz, flying the flag for the Mendoza region of Argentina, being the first team from there to qualify for the Libertadores proper. They have earned seven points so far, with wins at home to LDU and away to fellow Argentines Independiente. La Tomba now have the ultimate Libertadores test if they want to qualify, they have to win in the famous Estadio Casa Blanca.

Independiente, only two points back from the other two, do still have a chance to qualify, but that chance is pretty tiny. El Rojo need LDU and Godoy Cruz to draw, and at the same time they have to defeat Peñarol by eight goals.

Predictions: Peñarol 2x1 Independiente, LDU Quito 3x0 Godoy Cruz
(with these results, Peñarol and LDU will qualify)


The ties for the Copa Libertadores knockout rounds are decided by group form, not by a draw, so these final results will have a big impact on who faces who in the next round. With the predictions I gave, the knockout ties would be as follows:

Junior Barranquilla x Once Caldas
Cruzeiro x Santos
Libertad x Caracas
Internacional x Nacional
Cerro Porteño x LDU Quito
Peñarol x Estudiantes
Universidad Católica x Jaguares
Argentinos Juniors x Gremio

I think you’d agree that those scores throw up some interesting ties, but with several teams very close in terms of their performance, there are so many possibilities. A couple of really interesting ones which could realistically come up, first of all Internacional x Grêmio is a real possibility, two fierce rivals, and would make an amazing Libertadores tie. Possibly the most exciting though is the prospect of Peñarol x Nacional. One of the biggest rivalries in South American football, often regarded as one of the biggest rivalries in the world, it’s a very distinct possibility if you consider the records of the two sides.